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Open Access 01-12-2024 | Cholangiocarcinoma | Research

Development and validation of a novel preoperative clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

Authors: Shuqi Mao, Yuying Shan, Xi Yu, Yong Yang, Shengdong Wu, Caide Lu

Published in: BMC Cancer | Issue 1/2024

Abstract

Backgroud

We aimed to develop a novel preoperative nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) patients.

Methods

160 pCCA patients were enrolled at Lihuili Hospital from July 2006 to May 2022. A novel nomogram model was established to predict LNM in pCCA patients based on the independent predictive factors selected by the multivariate logistic regression model. The precision of the nomogram model was evaluated through internal and external validation with calibration curve statistics and the concordance index (C-index). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate and determine the clinical utility of the nomogram.

Results

Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that age (OR = 0.963, 95% CI: 0.930–0.996, P = 0.030), CA19-9 level (> 559.8 U/mL vs. ≤559.8 U/mL: OR = 3.162, 95% CI: 1.519–6.582, P = 0.002) and tumour diameter (OR = 1.388, 95% CI: 1.083–1.778, P = 0.010) were independent predictive factors of LNM in pCCA patients. The C-index was 0.763 (95% CI: 0.667–0.860) and 0.677 (95% CI: 0.580–0.773) in training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. ROC curve analysis indicated the comparative stability and adequate discriminative ability of nomogram. The sensitivity and specificity were 0.820 and 0.652 in training cohort and 0.704 and 0.649 in validation cohort, respectively. DCA revealed that the nomogram model could augment net benefits in the prediction of LNM in pCCA patients.

Conclusions

The novel prediction model is useful for predicting LNM in pCCA patients and showed adequate discriminative ability and high predictive accuracy.

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Title: Development and validation of a novel preoperative clinical model for predicting lymph node metastasis in perihilar cholangiocarcinoma
Authors: Shuqi Mao
Yuying Shan
Xi Yu
Yong Yang
Shengdong Wu
Caide Lu
Publication date: 01-12-2024
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Cholangiocarcinoma
Cholangiocarcinoma
Metastasis
Published in: BMC Cancer / Issue 1/2024
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2407
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-024-12068-1

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Abstract

Backgroud

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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