Published in:
Open Access 01-12-2017 | Research article
A simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic subjects aged 40–49 years
Published in: BMC Gastroenterology | Issue 1/2017
Login to get accessAbstract
Background
Limited data are available for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic individuals aged 40–49 years. We aimed to identify risk factors and develop a simple prediction model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in these persons.
Methods
Clinical data were collected on 2781 asymptomatic subjects aged 40–49 years who underwent colonoscopy for routine health examination. Subjects were randomly allocated to a development or validation set. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of advanced colorectal neoplasm.
Results
The prevalence of overall and advanced colorectal neoplasm was 20.2 and 2.5% respectively. Older age (45–49 years), male sex, positive serology of Helicobacter pylori, and high triglyceride and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were independently associated with an increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm. BMI (body mass index) was not significant in multivariable analysis. We developed a simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm (range 0–9). A cutoff of ≥4 defined 43% of subjects as high risk for advanced colorectal neoplasm (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 58%; area under the receiver operating curve = 0.72) in the validation datasets.
Conclusion
Older age (45–49 years), male sex, positive serology of H. pylori, high triglyceride level, and low HDL level were identified as independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasm.