Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Prevention Science 3/2012

01-06-2012

Using the Time-Varying Effect Model (TVEM) to Examine Dynamic Associations between Negative Affect and Self Confidence on Smoking Urges: Differences between Successful Quitters and Relapsers

Authors: Mariya P. Shiyko, Stephanie T. Lanza, Xianming Tan, Runze Li, Saul Shiffman

Published in: Prevention Science | Issue 3/2012

Login to get access

Abstract

With technological advances, collection of intensive longitudinal data (ILD), such as ecological momentary assessments, becomes more widespread in prevention science. In ILD studies, researchers are often interested in the effects of time-varying covariates (TVCs) on a time-varying outcome to discover correlates and triggers of target behaviors (e.g., how momentary changes in affect relate to momentary smoking urges). Traditional analytical methods, however, impose important constraints, assuming a constant effect of the TVC on the outcome. In the current paper, we describe a time-varying effect model (TVEM) and its applications to data collected as part of a smoking-cessation study. Differentiating between groups of short-term successful quitters (N = 207) and relapsers (N = 40), we examine the effects of momentary negative affect and abstinence self-efficacy on the intensity of smoking urges in each subgroup in the 2 weeks following a quit attempt. Successful quitters demonstrated a rapid reduction in smoking urges over time, a gradual decoupling of the association between negative affect and smoking urges, and a consistently strong negative effect of self-efficacy on smoking urges. In comparison, relapsers exhibited a high level of smoking urges throughout the post-quit period, a time-varying and, generally, weak effect of self-efficacy on smoking urges, and a gradual reduction in the strength of the association between negative affect and smoking urges. Implications of these findings are discussed. The TVEM is made available to applied prevention researchers through a SAS macro.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Footnotes
1
It is possible to include a binary indicator of relapse status in a single model for smoking urges. In the current study, however, our goal was to describe the entire system of time-varying relations within each group. By fitting separate models, we essentially allowed relapse state to moderate every aspect of the TVEM.
 
2
The time-varying effect of gender was tested for both groups. For relapsers, the overall effect was zero. For successful quitters, a model with three knots fit best, although the overall effect was very small. Specifically, the non-zero relation between gender and intensity of smoking urges did not emerge until day 10, with women reporting urges about .2 points higher than men.
 
Literature
go back to reference Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19, 716–723.CrossRef Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19, 716–723.CrossRef
go back to reference Baer, J. S., Holt, C. S., & Uchtenstein, E. (1986). Self-efficacy and smoking reexamined: Construct validity and clinical utility. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 54, 846–852.PubMedCrossRef Baer, J. S., Holt, C. S., & Uchtenstein, E. (1986). Self-efficacy and smoking reexamined: Construct validity and clinical utility. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 54, 846–852.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Baker, T. B., Morse, E., & Sherman, J. E. (1987). The motivation to use drugs: A psychobiological analysis of urges. In P. C. Rivers (Ed.), The Nebraska symposium on motivation: Alcohol use and abuse (pp. 257–232). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press. Baker, T. B., Morse, E., & Sherman, J. E. (1987). The motivation to use drugs: A psychobiological analysis of urges. In P. C. Rivers (Ed.), The Nebraska symposium on motivation: Alcohol use and abuse (pp. 257–232). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.
go back to reference Baker, T. B., Piper, M. E., McCarthy, D. E., Majeskie, M. R., & Fiore, M. C. (2004). Addiction motivation reformulated: An affective processing model of negative reinforcement. Psychological Review, 111, 33–51.PubMedCrossRef Baker, T. B., Piper, M. E., McCarthy, D. E., Majeskie, M. R., & Fiore, M. C. (2004). Addiction motivation reformulated: An affective processing model of negative reinforcement. Psychological Review, 111, 33–51.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Berkman, E. T., Dickenson, J., Falk, E. B., & Lieberman, M. D. (2011). Using SMS text messaging to assess moderators of smoking reduction: Validating a new tool for ecological measurement of health behaviors. Health Psychology, 30, 186–194.PubMedCrossRef Berkman, E. T., Dickenson, J., Falk, E. B., & Lieberman, M. D. (2011). Using SMS text messaging to assess moderators of smoking reduction: Validating a new tool for ecological measurement of health behaviors. Health Psychology, 30, 186–194.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Bolger, N., Davis, A., & Rafaeli, E. (2003). Diary methods: Capturing life as it is lived. Annual Review of Psychology, 54, 579–616.PubMedCrossRef Bolger, N., Davis, A., & Rafaeli, E. (2003). Diary methods: Capturing life as it is lived. Annual Review of Psychology, 54, 579–616.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Brandon, T. H. (1994). Negative affect as motivation to smoke. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 3, 33–37.CrossRef Brandon, T. H. (1994). Negative affect as motivation to smoke. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 3, 33–37.CrossRef
go back to reference Cinciripini, P. M., Wetter, D. W., & McClure, J. B. (1997). Scheduled reduced smoking: Effects on smoking abstinence and potential mechanisms of action. Addictive Behaviors, 22, 759–767.PubMedCrossRef Cinciripini, P. M., Wetter, D. W., & McClure, J. B. (1997). Scheduled reduced smoking: Effects on smoking abstinence and potential mechanisms of action. Addictive Behaviors, 22, 759–767.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Ebner-Priemer, U. W., Kubiak, T., & Pawlik, K. (2009). Ambulatory assessment. European Psychologist, 14, 95–97.CrossRef Ebner-Priemer, U. W., Kubiak, T., & Pawlik, K. (2009). Ambulatory assessment. European Psychologist, 14, 95–97.CrossRef
go back to reference Fahrenberg, J., Myrtek, M., Pawlik, K., & Perrez, M. (2007). Ambulatory assessment - Monitoring behavior in daily life settings: A behavioral-scientific challenge for psychology. European Journal of Psychological Assessment, 23, 206–213.CrossRef Fahrenberg, J., Myrtek, M., Pawlik, K., & Perrez, M. (2007). Ambulatory assessment - Monitoring behavior in daily life settings: A behavioral-scientific challenge for psychology. European Journal of Psychological Assessment, 23, 206–213.CrossRef
go back to reference Garcia, M. E., Schmitz, J. M., & Doerfler, L. A. (1990). A fine-grained analysis of the role of self-efficacy in self-initiated attempts to quit smoking. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 58, 317–322.PubMedCrossRef Garcia, M. E., Schmitz, J. M., & Doerfler, L. A. (1990). A fine-grained analysis of the role of self-efficacy in self-initiated attempts to quit smoking. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 58, 317–322.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Gulliver, S. B., Hughes, J. R., Solomon, L. J., & Dey, A. N. (1995). Self-efficacy and relapse to smoking in self-quitters. Addiction, 90, 767–772.PubMedCrossRef Gulliver, S. B., Hughes, J. R., Solomon, L. J., & Dey, A. N. (1995). Self-efficacy and relapse to smoking in self-quitters. Addiction, 90, 767–772.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Gwaltney, C. J., Metrik, J., Kahler, C. W., & Shiffman, S. (2009). Self-efficacy and smoking cessation: A meta-analysis. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 23, 56–66.PubMedCrossRef Gwaltney, C. J., Metrik, J., Kahler, C. W., & Shiffman, S. (2009). Self-efficacy and smoking cessation: A meta-analysis. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 23, 56–66.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Gwaltney, C. J., Shiffman, S., Balabanis, M. H., & Paty, J. A. (2005). Dynamic self-efficacy and outcome expectancies: Prediction of smoking lapse and relapse. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 114, 661–675.PubMedCrossRef Gwaltney, C. J., Shiffman, S., Balabanis, M. H., & Paty, J. A. (2005). Dynamic self-efficacy and outcome expectancies: Prediction of smoking lapse and relapse. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 114, 661–675.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (1993). Varying-coefficient models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 55, 757–779. Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (1993). Varying-coefficient models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 55, 757–779.
go back to reference Hoover, D. R., Rice, J. A., Wu, C. O., & Yang, L. P. (1998). Nonparametric smoothing estimates of time-varying coefficient models with longitudinal data. Biometrika, 85, 809–822.CrossRef Hoover, D. R., Rice, J. A., Wu, C. O., & Yang, L. P. (1998). Nonparametric smoothing estimates of time-varying coefficient models with longitudinal data. Biometrika, 85, 809–822.CrossRef
go back to reference Kassel, J. D., Stroud, L. R., & Paronis, C. A. (2003). Smoking, stress, and negative affect: correlation, causation, and context across stages of smoking. Psychological Bulletin, 129, 270–304.PubMedCrossRef Kassel, J. D., Stroud, L. R., & Paronis, C. A. (2003). Smoking, stress, and negative affect: correlation, causation, and context across stages of smoking. Psychological Bulletin, 129, 270–304.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Killen, J. D., Fortmann, S. P., Newman, B., & Varady, A. (1991). Prospective study of factors influencing the development of craving associated with smoking cessation. Psychopharmacology, 105, 191–196.PubMedCrossRef Killen, J. D., Fortmann, S. P., Newman, B., & Varady, A. (1991). Prospective study of factors influencing the development of craving associated with smoking cessation. Psychopharmacology, 105, 191–196.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Larson, R., & Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1983). The experience sampling method. New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, 15, 41–56. Larson, R., & Csikszentmihalyi, M. (1983). The experience sampling method. New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behavioral Science, 15, 41–56.
go back to reference Li, R., Root, T. L., & Shiffman, S. (2006). A local linear estimation procedure of functional multilevel modeling. In T. Walls & J. L. Schafer (Eds.), Models for intensive longitudinal data (pp. 63–83). New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRef Li, R., Root, T. L., & Shiffman, S. (2006). A local linear estimation procedure of functional multilevel modeling. In T. Walls & J. L. Schafer (Eds.), Models for intensive longitudinal data (pp. 63–83). New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRef
go back to reference Marlatt, G. A., & Gordon, J. R. (1985). Relapse prevention: Maintenance strategies in the treatment of addictive behaviors. New York: Guilford Press. Marlatt, G. A., & Gordon, J. R. (1985). Relapse prevention: Maintenance strategies in the treatment of addictive behaviors. New York: Guilford Press.
go back to reference McCarthy, D. E., Piasecki, T. M., Fiore, M. C., & Baker, T. B. (2006). Life before and after quitting smoking: an electronic diary study. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 115, 454–466.PubMedCrossRef McCarthy, D. E., Piasecki, T. M., Fiore, M. C., & Baker, T. B. (2006). Life before and after quitting smoking: an electronic diary study. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 115, 454–466.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Niaura, R., Shadel, W. G., Britt, D. M., & Abrams, D. B. (2002). Response to social stress, urge to smoke, and smoking cessation. Addictive Behaviors, 27, 241–250.PubMedCrossRef Niaura, R., Shadel, W. G., Britt, D. M., & Abrams, D. B. (2002). Response to social stress, urge to smoke, and smoking cessation. Addictive Behaviors, 27, 241–250.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Piasecki, T. M., Fiore, M. C., McCarthy, D. E., & Baker, T. B. (2002). Have we lost our way? The need for dynamic formulations of smoking relapse proneness. Addiction, 97, 1093–1108.PubMedCrossRef Piasecki, T. M., Fiore, M. C., McCarthy, D. E., & Baker, T. B. (2002). Have we lost our way? The need for dynamic formulations of smoking relapse proneness. Addiction, 97, 1093–1108.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Piasecki, T. M., Kenford, S. L., Smith, S. S., Fiore, M. C., & Baker, T. B. (1997). Listening to nicotine: Negative affect and the smoking withdrawal conundrum. Psychological Science, 8, 184.CrossRef Piasecki, T. M., Kenford, S. L., Smith, S. S., Fiore, M. C., & Baker, T. B. (1997). Listening to nicotine: Negative affect and the smoking withdrawal conundrum. Psychological Science, 8, 184.CrossRef
go back to reference Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Raudenbush, S. W., & Bryk, A. S. (2002). Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
go back to reference Rodgers, A., Corbett, T., Bramley, D., Riddell, T., Wills, M., Lin, R. B., et al. (2005). Do u smoke after txt? Results of a randomised trial of smoking cessation using mobile phone text messaging. Tobacco Control, 14, 255–261.PubMedCrossRef Rodgers, A., Corbett, T., Bramley, D., Riddell, T., Wills, M., Lin, R. B., et al. (2005). Do u smoke after txt? Results of a randomised trial of smoking cessation using mobile phone text messaging. Tobacco Control, 14, 255–261.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Schwarz, G. E. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6, 461–464.CrossRef Schwarz, G. E. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6, 461–464.CrossRef
go back to reference Schwartz, J. E., & Stone, A. A. (1998). Strategies for analyzing ecological momentary assessment data. Health Psychology, 17, 6–16.PubMedCrossRef Schwartz, J. E., & Stone, A. A. (1998). Strategies for analyzing ecological momentary assessment data. Health Psychology, 17, 6–16.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Schwartz, J. E., & Stone, A. A. (2007). The analysis of real-time momentary data: A practical guide. In A. A. Stone, S. Shiffman, A. A. Atienza, & L. Nebeling (Eds.), The science of real-time data capture: Self-reports in health research (pp. 76–113). New York: Oxford University Press. Schwartz, J. E., & Stone, A. A. (2007). The analysis of real-time momentary data: A practical guide. In A. A. Stone, S. Shiffman, A. A. Atienza, & L. Nebeling (Eds.), The science of real-time data capture: Self-reports in health research (pp. 76–113). New York: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Shadel, W. G., & Mermelstein, R. J. (1993). Cigarette smoking under stress: The role of coping expectancies among smokers in a clinic-based smoking cessation program. Health Psychology, 12, 443–450.PubMedCrossRef Shadel, W. G., & Mermelstein, R. J. (1993). Cigarette smoking under stress: The role of coping expectancies among smokers in a clinic-based smoking cessation program. Health Psychology, 12, 443–450.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S. (2005). Dynamic influences on smoking relapse process. Journal of Personality, 73, 1715–1748.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S. (2005). Dynamic influences on smoking relapse process. Journal of Personality, 73, 1715–1748.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S. (2009). Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) in studies of substance use. Psychological Assessment, 21, 486–497.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S. (2009). Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) in studies of substance use. Psychological Assessment, 21, 486–497.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Balabanis, M. H., Paty, J. A., Engberg, J., Gwaltney, C. J., Liu, K. S., et al. (2000). Dynamic effects of self-efficacy on smoking lapse and relapse. Health Psychology, 19, 315–323.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., Balabanis, M. H., Paty, J. A., Engberg, J., Gwaltney, C. J., Liu, K. S., et al. (2000). Dynamic effects of self-efficacy on smoking lapse and relapse. Health Psychology, 19, 315–323.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Engberg, J. B., Paty, J. A., Perz, W. G., Gnys, M., Kassel, J. D., et al. (1997). A day at a time: Predicting smoking lapse from daily urge. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 106, 104–116.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., Engberg, J. B., Paty, J. A., Perz, W. G., Gnys, M., Kassel, J. D., et al. (1997). A day at a time: Predicting smoking lapse from daily urge. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 106, 104–116.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Gnys, M., Richards, T., Paty, J. A., Hickcox, M., & Kassel, J. D. (1996). Temptations to smoke after quitting: A comparison of lapsers and maintainers. Health Psychology, 15, 455–461.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., Gnys, M., Richards, T., Paty, J. A., Hickcox, M., & Kassel, J. D. (1996). Temptations to smoke after quitting: A comparison of lapsers and maintainers. Health Psychology, 15, 455–461.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Gwaltney, C. J., Balabanis, M. H., Liu, K. S., Paty, J. A., Kassel, J. D., et al. (2002). Immediate antecedents of cigarette smoking: An analysis from ecological momentary assessment. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 531–545.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., Gwaltney, C. J., Balabanis, M. H., Liu, K. S., Paty, J. A., Kassel, J. D., et al. (2002). Immediate antecedents of cigarette smoking: An analysis from ecological momentary assessment. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111, 531–545.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Hickcox, M., Paty, J. A., Gnys, M., Kassel, J. D., & Richards, T. J. (1996). Progression from a smoking lapse to relapse: Prediction from abstinence violation effects, nicotine dependence, and lapse characteristics. Health Psychology, 64, 993–1002. Shiffman, S., Hickcox, M., Paty, J. A., Gnys, M., Kassel, J. D., & Richards, T. J. (1996). Progression from a smoking lapse to relapse: Prediction from abstinence violation effects, nicotine dependence, and lapse characteristics. Health Psychology, 64, 993–1002.
go back to reference Shiffman, S., & Jarvik, M. (1976). Smoking withdrawal symptoms in two weeks of abstinence. Psychopharmacology, 50, 35–39.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., & Jarvik, M. (1976). Smoking withdrawal symptoms in two weeks of abstinence. Psychopharmacology, 50, 35–39.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Paty, J. A., Gnys, M., Kassel, J. A., & Hickcox, M. (1996). First lapses to smoking: Within-subjects analysis of real-time reports. Journal of Consulting & Clinical Psychology, 64, 366–379.CrossRef Shiffman, S., Paty, J. A., Gnys, M., Kassel, J. A., & Hickcox, M. (1996). First lapses to smoking: Within-subjects analysis of real-time reports. Journal of Consulting & Clinical Psychology, 64, 366–379.CrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., Stone, A. A., & Hufford, M. R. (2008). Ecological momentary assessment. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 4, 1–32.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., Stone, A. A., & Hufford, M. R. (2008). Ecological momentary assessment. Annual Review of Clinical Psychology, 4, 1–32.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Shiffman, S., & Waters, A. J. (2004). Negative affect and smoking lapses: A prospective analysis. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 72, 192–201.PubMedCrossRef Shiffman, S., & Waters, A. J. (2004). Negative affect and smoking lapses: A prospective analysis. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 72, 192–201.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence. New York: Oxford University Press. Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003). Applied longitudinal data analysis: Modeling change and event occurrence. New York: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Smyth, J. M., & Stone, A. A. (2003). Ecological momentary assessment research in behavioral medicine. Journal of Happiness Studies, 4, 35–52.CrossRef Smyth, J. M., & Stone, A. A. (2003). Ecological momentary assessment research in behavioral medicine. Journal of Happiness Studies, 4, 35–52.CrossRef
go back to reference Stone, A. A., & Shiffman, S. (1994). Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) in behavioral medicine. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 16, 199–202. Stone, A. A., & Shiffman, S. (1994). Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) in behavioral medicine. Annals of Behavioral Medicine, 16, 199–202.
go back to reference Tan, X., Shiyko, M. P., Li, R., Li, Y., & Dierker, L. (2010). Intensive longitudinal data and model with varying effects (Technical Report No. 10–106). University Park, PA: The Methodology Center, The Pennsylvania State University. Tan, X., Shiyko, M. P., Li, R., Li, Y., & Dierker, L. (2010). Intensive longitudinal data and model with varying effects (Technical Report No. 10–106). University Park, PA: The Methodology Center, The Pennsylvania State University.
go back to reference Trull, T. J., & Ebner-Priemer, U. W. (2009). Using experience sampling methods/ecological momentary assessment (ESM/EMA) in clinical assessment and clinical research: Introduction to the special section. Psychological Assessment, 21, 457–462.PubMedCrossRef Trull, T. J., & Ebner-Priemer, U. W. (2009). Using experience sampling methods/ecological momentary assessment (ESM/EMA) in clinical assessment and clinical research: Introduction to the special section. Psychological Assessment, 21, 457–462.PubMedCrossRef
go back to reference Van Zundert, R. M. P., Boogerd, E. A., Vermulst, A. A., & Engels, R. C. M. E. (2009). Nicotine withdrawal symptoms following a quit attempt: An ecological momentary assessment study among adolescents. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 11, 722–729.CrossRef Van Zundert, R. M. P., Boogerd, E. A., Vermulst, A. A., & Engels, R. C. M. E. (2009). Nicotine withdrawal symptoms following a quit attempt: An ecological momentary assessment study among adolescents. Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 11, 722–729.CrossRef
go back to reference Walls, T. A., & Schafer, J. L. (Eds.) (2006). Modeling for intensive longitudinal data. New York, NY: Oxford University Press. Walls, T. A., & Schafer, J. L. (Eds.) (2006). Modeling for intensive longitudinal data. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
go back to reference Wetter, D. W., Smith, S. S., Kenford, S. L., Jorenby, D. E., Fiore, M. C., Hurt, R. D., et al. (1994). Smoking outcome expectancies: Factor structure, predictive validity, and discriminant validity. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 103, 801–811.PubMedCrossRef Wetter, D. W., Smith, S. S., Kenford, S. L., Jorenby, D. E., Fiore, M. C., Hurt, R. D., et al. (1994). Smoking outcome expectancies: Factor structure, predictive validity, and discriminant validity. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 103, 801–811.PubMedCrossRef
Metadata
Title
Using the Time-Varying Effect Model (TVEM) to Examine Dynamic Associations between Negative Affect and Self Confidence on Smoking Urges: Differences between Successful Quitters and Relapsers
Authors
Mariya P. Shiyko
Stephanie T. Lanza
Xianming Tan
Runze Li
Saul Shiffman
Publication date
01-06-2012
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Prevention Science / Issue 3/2012
Print ISSN: 1389-4986
Electronic ISSN: 1573-6695
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11121-011-0264-z

Other articles of this Issue 3/2012

Prevention Science 3/2012 Go to the issue