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Open Access 01-12-2021 | Urothelial Cancer | Research

Construction of a survival prediction model for high-and low -grade UTUC after tumor resection based on “SEER database”: a multicenter study

Authors: Mengmeng Wang, Xin Ren, Ge Wang, Xiaomin Sun, Shifeng Tang, Baogang Zhang, Xiaoming Xing, Wenfeng Zhang, Guojun Gao, Jing Du, Shukun Zhang, Lijuan Liu, Xia Zheng, Zhenkun Zhang, Changgang Sun

Published in: BMC Cancer | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

There are differences in survival between high-and low-grade Upper Tract Urothelial Carcinoma (UTUC). Our study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with high- and low-grade UTUC after tumor resection, and to explore the difference between high- and low-grade patients.

Methods

Patients confirmed to have UTUC between 2004 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The UTUCs were identified and classified as high- and low-grade, and 1-, 3- and 5-year nomograms were established. The nomogram was then validated using the Chinese multicenter dataset (patients diagnosed in Shandong, China between January 2010 and October 2020).

Results

In the high-grade UTUC patients, nine important factors related to survival after tumor resection were identified to construct nomogram. The C index of training dataset was 0.740 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.727–0.754), showing good calibration. The C index of internal validation dataset was 0.729(95% CI:0.707–0.750). On the other hand, Two independent predictors were identified to construct nomogram of low-grade UTUC. The C index was 0.714 (95% CI: 0.671–0.758) for the training set,0.731(95% CI:0.670–0.791) for the internal validation dataset. Encouragingly, the nomogram was clinically useful and had a good discriminative ability to identify patients at high risk.

Conclusion

We constructed a nomogram and a corresponding risk classification system predicting the OS of patients with an initial diagnosis of high-and low-grade UTUC.

Available only for authorised users

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Title: Construction of a survival prediction model for high-and low -grade UTUC after tumor resection based on “SEER database”: a multicenter study
Authors: Mengmeng Wang
Xin Ren
Ge Wang
Xiaomin Sun
Shifeng Tang
Baogang Zhang
Xiaoming Xing
Wenfeng Zhang
Guojun Gao
Jing Du
Shukun Zhang
Lijuan Liu
Xia Zheng
Zhenkun Zhang
Changgang Sun
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Urothelial Cancer
Urothelial Cancer
Published in: BMC Cancer / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2407
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-08742-3

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