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BMC Public Health
Published in: BMC Public Health 1/2024

Open Access 01-12-2024 | Typhoid Fever | Research

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018

Authors: Jiaojiao Qian, Yifan Wu, Changqiang Zhu, Qiong Chen, Hongliang Chu, Licheng Liu, Chongcai Wang, Yizhe Luo, Na Yue, Wenhao Li, Xiaohong Yang, Jing Yi, Fuqiang Ye, Ji He, Yong Qi, Fei Lu, Chunhui Wang, Weilong Tan

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2024

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Abstract

Background

Large-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control.

Methods

This study utilized a Bayesian space–time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions.

Results

Scrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882.

Conclusions

These results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and long-term impact of meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors on scrub typhus in China from 2006 to 2018
Authors
Jiaojiao Qian
Yifan Wu
Changqiang Zhu
Qiong Chen
Hongliang Chu
Licheng Liu
Chongcai Wang
Yizhe Luo
Na Yue
Wenhao Li
Xiaohong Yang
Jing Yi
Fuqiang Ye
Ji He
Yong Qi
Fei Lu
Chunhui Wang
Weilong Tan
Publication date
01-12-2024
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2024
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-023-17233-y

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