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BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2015

Open Access 01-12-2015 | Research article

The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study

Authors: Andrew D Kerkhoff, Robin Wood, Frank G Cobelens, Ankur Gupta-Wright, Linda-Gail Bekker, Stephen D Lawn

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2015

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Abstract

Background

Low haemoglobin concentrations may be predictive of incident tuberculosis (TB) and death in HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), but data are limited and inconsistent. We examined these relationships retrospectively in a long-term South African ART cohort with multiple time-updated haemoglobin measurements.

Methods

Prospectively collected clinical data on patients receiving ART for up to 8 years in a community-based cohort were analysed. Time-updated haemoglobin concentrations, CD4 counts and HIV viral loads were recorded, and TB diagnoses and deaths from all causes were ascertained. Anaemia severity was classified using World Health Organization criteria. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated and Poisson regression models were used to identify independent predictors of incident TB and mortality, respectively.

Results

During a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR, 2.5-5.8) of 1,521 patients, 476 cases of incident TB and 192 deaths occurred during 6,459 person-years (PYs) of follow-up. TB incidence rates were strongly associated with time-updated anaemia severity; those without anaemia had a rate of 4.4 (95%CI, 3.8-5.1) cases/100 PYs compared to 10.0 (95%CI, 8.3-12.1), 26.6 (95%CI, 22.5-31.7) and 87.8 (95%CI, 57.0-138.2) cases/100 PYs in those with mild, moderate and severe anaemia, respectively. Similarly, mortality rates in those with no anaemia or mild, moderate and severe time-updated anaemia were 1.1 (95%CI, 0.8-1.5), 3.5 (95%CI, 2.7-4.8), 11.8 (95%CI, 9.5-14.8) and 28.2 (95%CI, 16.5-51.5) cases/100 PYs, respectively. Moderate and severe anaemia (time-updated) during ART were the strongest independent predictors for incident TB (adjusted IRR = 3.8 [95%CI, 3.0-4.8] and 8.2 [95%CI, 5.3-12.7], respectively) and for mortality (adjusted IRR = 6.0 [95%CI, 3.9-9.2] and adjusted IRR = 8.0 [95%CI, 3.9-16.4], respectively).

Conclusions

Increasing severity of anaemia was associated with exceptionally high rates of both incident TB and mortality during long-term ART. Patients receiving ART who have moderate or severe anaemia should be prioritized for TB screening using microbiological assays and may require adjunctive clinical interventions.
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Metadata
Title
The predictive value of current haemoglobin levels for incident tuberculosis and/or mortality during long-term antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a cohort study
Authors
Andrew D Kerkhoff
Robin Wood
Frank G Cobelens
Ankur Gupta-Wright
Linda-Gail Bekker
Stephen D Lawn
Publication date
01-12-2015
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2015
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-015-0320-9

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