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Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research®
Published in: Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research® 5/2013

01-05-2013 | Not the Last Word

The Folly of Forecasting

Author: Joseph Bernstein, MD

Published in: Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research® | Issue 5/2013

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Excerpt

People want to know the future. While too much information can be unpleasant, in general people like predictions. Just look at the daily newspaper: the horoscopes, the weather and sports pages, the financial section, and even the political columns are all devoted, at least in part, to making guesses about the future. …
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Frankowski JJ, Watkins-Castillio S. Primary Total Knee and Total Hip Arthroplasty Projections for the U.S. Population to the Year 2030. Rosemont, IL: American Association of Orthopedic Surgeons; 2002.
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Kurtz S, Ong K, Lau E, Mowat F, Halpern M. Projections of primary and revision hip and knee arthroplasty in the United States from 2005 to 2030. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 2007;89:780–785.PubMedCrossRef
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Lee PP, Jackson CA, Relles DA. Demand-based assessment of workforce requirements for orthopaedic services. J Bone Joint Surg Am. 1998;80:313–326.PubMed
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Taleb N. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York, NY: Random House Trade Paperbacks; 2010.
Metadata
Title
The Folly of Forecasting
Author
Joseph Bernstein, MD
Publication date
01-05-2013
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Published in
Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research® / Issue 5/2013
Print ISSN: 0009-921X
Electronic ISSN: 1528-1132
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11999-013-2862-5

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