Skip to main content
Top
Published in: Health Research Policy and Systems 1/2015

Open Access 01-12-2016 | Study Protocol

Systems Science for Caribbean Health: the development and piloting of a model for guiding policy on diabetes in the Caribbean

Authors: L. Guariguata, C. Guell, T. A. Samuels, E. A. J. A. Rouwette, J. Woodcock, I. R. Hambleton, N. Unwin

Published in: Health Research Policy and Systems | Issue 1/2015

Login to get access

Abstract

Background

Diabetes is highly prevalent in the Caribbean, associated with a high morbidity and mortality and is a recognised threat to economic and social development. Heads of Government in the Caribbean Community came together in 2007 and declared their commitment to reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, by calling for a multi-sectoral, systemic response. To facilitate the development of effective policies, policymakers are being engaged in the development and use of a system dynamics (SD) model of diabetes for Caribbean countries.

Methods

Previous work on a diabetes SD model from the United States of America (USA) is being adapted to a local context for three countries in the region using input from stakeholders, a review of existing qualitative and quantitative data, and collection of new qualitative data. Three country models will be developed using one-on-one stakeholder engagement and iterative revision. An inter-country model will also be developed following a model-building workshop. Models will be compared to each other and to the USA model. The inter-country model will be used to simulate policies identified as priorities by stakeholders and to develop targets for prevention and control. The model and model-building process will be evaluated by stakeholders and a manual developed for use in other high-burden developing regions.

Discussion

SD has been applied with success for health policy development in high-income country settings. The utility of SD in developing countries as an aid to policy decision-making related to NCDs has not been tested. This study represents the first of its kind.
Literature
1.
go back to reference Guariguata L, Whiting DR, Beagley J, Linnenkamp U, Hambleton I, Cho NH, et al. Global estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults for 2013 and projections for 2035 for the IDF Diabetes Atlas. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014;103(2):137–49.CrossRefPubMed Guariguata L, Whiting DR, Beagley J, Linnenkamp U, Hambleton I, Cho NH, et al. Global estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults for 2013 and projections for 2035 for the IDF Diabetes Atlas. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014;103(2):137–49.CrossRefPubMed
2.
go back to reference Roglic G, Unwin N. Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010;87(1):15–9.CrossRefPubMed Roglic G, Unwin N. Mortality attributable to diabetes: estimates for the year 2010. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010;87(1):15–9.CrossRefPubMed
3.
go back to reference Zhang P, Zhang X, Brown J, Vistisen D, Sicree R, Shaw J, et al. Global healthcare expenditure on diabetes for 2010 and 2030. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010;87(3):293–301.CrossRefPubMed Zhang P, Zhang X, Brown J, Vistisen D, Sicree R, Shaw J, et al. Global healthcare expenditure on diabetes for 2010 and 2030. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2010;87(3):293–301.CrossRefPubMed
4.
go back to reference Yisahak SF, Beagley J, Hambleton IR, Narayan KMV. Diabetes in north America and the Caribbean: an update. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014;103(2):223–30.CrossRefPubMed Yisahak SF, Beagley J, Hambleton IR, Narayan KMV. Diabetes in north America and the Caribbean: an update. Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2014;103(2):223–30.CrossRefPubMed
5.
go back to reference Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, Lim S, Shibuya K, Aboyans V, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012;380(9859):2095–128.CrossRefPubMed Lozano R, Naghavi M, Foreman K, Lim S, Shibuya K, Aboyans V, et al. Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012;380(9859):2095–128.CrossRefPubMed
6.
go back to reference Hennis AJM, Fraser HS, Jonnalagadda R, Fuller J, Chaturvedi N. Explanations for the High Risk of Diabetes-Related Amputation in a Caribbean Population of Black African Descent and Potential for Prevention. Diabetes Care. 2004;27(11):2636–41.CrossRefPubMed Hennis AJM, Fraser HS, Jonnalagadda R, Fuller J, Chaturvedi N. Explanations for the High Risk of Diabetes-Related Amputation in a Caribbean Population of Black African Descent and Potential for Prevention. Diabetes Care. 2004;27(11):2636–41.CrossRefPubMed
7.
go back to reference Ng M, Fleming T, Robinson M, Thomson B, Graetz N, Margono C, et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet. 2014;384(9945):766–81.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Ng M, Fleming T, Robinson M, Thomson B, Graetz N, Margono C, et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet. 2014;384(9945):766–81.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
8.
go back to reference Hallal PC, Andersen LB, Bull FC, Guthold R, Haskell W, Ekelund U. Global physical activity levels: surveillance progress, pitfalls, and prospects. Lancet. 2012;380(9838):247–57.CrossRefPubMed Hallal PC, Andersen LB, Bull FC, Guthold R, Haskell W, Ekelund U. Global physical activity levels: surveillance progress, pitfalls, and prospects. Lancet. 2012;380(9838):247–57.CrossRefPubMed
11.
go back to reference Samuels TA, Kirton J, Guebert J. Monitoring compliance with high-level commitments in health: the case of the CARICOM Summit on Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases. Bull World Health Organ. 2014;92(4):270–6B.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Samuels TA, Kirton J, Guebert J. Monitoring compliance with high-level commitments in health: the case of the CARICOM Summit on Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases. Bull World Health Organ. 2014;92(4):270–6B.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
12.
go back to reference Stuckler D, Siegel K. Sick Societies: Responding to the global challenge of chronic disease. 1st ed. Oxford: University Press; 2011.CrossRef Stuckler D, Siegel K. Sick Societies: Responding to the global challenge of chronic disease. 1st ed. Oxford: University Press; 2011.CrossRef
13.
go back to reference Kumanyika SK, Parker L, Sim LJ. Committee on an Evidence Framework for Obesity Prevention Decision Making; Food and Nutrition Board; Institute of Medicine. Bridging the Evidence Gap in Obesity Prevention: A Framework to Inform Decision Making. Washington, DC: National Academies Press; 2010. Kumanyika SK, Parker L, Sim LJ. Committee on an Evidence Framework for Obesity Prevention Decision Making; Food and Nutrition Board; Institute of Medicine. Bridging the Evidence Gap in Obesity Prevention: A Framework to Inform Decision Making. Washington, DC: National Academies Press; 2010.
14.
go back to reference Vennix JAM. Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics. New Jersey: Wiley; 1996. Vennix JAM. Group Model Building: Facilitating Team Learning Using System Dynamics. New Jersey: Wiley; 1996.
16.
go back to reference Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA. Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation. Am J Public Health. 2006;96(3):488–94.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Jones AP, Homer JB, Murphy DL, Essien JDK, Milstein B, Seville DA. Understanding diabetes population dynamics through simulation modeling and experimentation. Am J Public Health. 2006;96(3):488–94.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
18.
go back to reference Homer J, Milstein B, Wile K, Trogdon J, Huang P, Labarthe D, et al. Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health. Prev Chronic Dis. 2010;7(1):A18.PubMed Homer J, Milstein B, Wile K, Trogdon J, Huang P, Labarthe D, et al. Simulating and evaluating local interventions to improve cardiovascular health. Prev Chronic Dis. 2010;7(1):A18.PubMed
19.
go back to reference Hirsch G, Homer J, Evans E, Zielinski A. A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions. Am J Public Health. 2010;100(4):616–22.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Hirsch G, Homer J, Evans E, Zielinski A. A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions. Am J Public Health. 2010;100(4):616–22.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
20.
go back to reference Kenealy T, Rees D, Sheridan N, Moffitt A, Tibby S, Homer J. A “whole of system” approach to compare options for CVD interventions in Counties Manukau. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2012;36(3):263–8.CrossRefPubMed Kenealy T, Rees D, Sheridan N, Moffitt A, Tibby S, Homer J. A “whole of system” approach to compare options for CVD interventions in Counties Manukau. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2012;36(3):263–8.CrossRefPubMed
21.
go back to reference Mahamoud A, Roche B, Homer J. Modelling the social determinants of health and simulating short-term and long-term intervention impacts for the city of Toronto, Canada. Soc Sci Med. 2013;93:247–55.CrossRefPubMed Mahamoud A, Roche B, Homer J. Modelling the social determinants of health and simulating short-term and long-term intervention impacts for the city of Toronto, Canada. Soc Sci Med. 2013;93:247–55.CrossRefPubMed
22.
go back to reference World Health Organization. Draft comprehensive global monitoring framework and targets for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. Geneva: WHO; 2013. (Sixty-sixth World Health Assembly). Report No.: A66/8. World Health Organization. Draft comprehensive global monitoring framework and targets for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases. Geneva: WHO; 2013. (Sixty-sixth World Health Assembly). Report No.: A66/8.
23.
go back to reference Milstein B, Jones A, Homer JB, Murphy D, Essien J, Seville D. Charting plausible futures for diabetes prevalence in the United States: a role for system dynamics simulation modeling. Prev Chronic Dis. 2007;4(3):A52.PubMedPubMedCentral Milstein B, Jones A, Homer JB, Murphy D, Essien J, Seville D. Charting plausible futures for diabetes prevalence in the United States: a role for system dynamics simulation modeling. Prev Chronic Dis. 2007;4(3):A52.PubMedPubMedCentral
24.
go back to reference Hovmand P. Community Based System Dynamics. Berlin: Springer Science & Business Media; 2013. Hovmand P. Community Based System Dynamics. Berlin: Springer Science & Business Media; 2013.
25.
go back to reference Sobers-Grannum N, Murphy MM, Nielsen A, Guell C, Samuels TA, Bishop L, et al. Female gender is a social determinant of diabetes in the Caribbean: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One. 2015;10(5):e0126799.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Sobers-Grannum N, Murphy MM, Nielsen A, Guell C, Samuels TA, Bishop L, et al. Female gender is a social determinant of diabetes in the Caribbean: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One. 2015;10(5):e0126799.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
26.
go back to reference Green J, Thorogood N. Qualitative Methods for Health Research. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications; 2004. Green J, Thorogood N. Qualitative Methods for Health Research. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publications; 2004.
27.
go back to reference Kim H, Andersen DF. Building confidence in causal maps generated from purposive text data: mapping transcripts of the Federal Reserve. Syst Dyn Rev. 2012;28(4):311–28.CrossRef Kim H, Andersen DF. Building confidence in causal maps generated from purposive text data: mapping transcripts of the Federal Reserve. Syst Dyn Rev. 2012;28(4):311–28.CrossRef
28.
go back to reference Barlas Y. Model validation in system dynamics. In: Proceedings of the 1994 International System Dynamics Conference. Scotland: Sterling; 1994. p. 1–10. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/1994/proceed/papers_vol_1/barla002.pdf. Accessed 11 Mar 2016. Barlas Y. Model validation in system dynamics. In: Proceedings of the 1994 International System Dynamics Conference. Scotland: Sterling; 1994. p. 1–10. http://​www.​systemdynamics.​org/​conferences/​1994/​proceed/​papers_​vol_​1/​barla002.​pdf.​ Accessed 11 Mar 2016.
29.
go back to reference Oliver K, Innvar S, Lorenc T, Woodman J, Thomas J. A systematic review of barriers to and facilitators of the use of evidence by policymakers. BMC Health Serv Res. 2014;14:2.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral Oliver K, Innvar S, Lorenc T, Woodman J, Thomas J. A systematic review of barriers to and facilitators of the use of evidence by policymakers. BMC Health Serv Res. 2014;14:2.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
Metadata
Title
Systems Science for Caribbean Health: the development and piloting of a model for guiding policy on diabetes in the Caribbean
Authors
L. Guariguata
C. Guell
T. A. Samuels
E. A. J. A. Rouwette
J. Woodcock
I. R. Hambleton
N. Unwin
Publication date
01-12-2016
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Health Research Policy and Systems / Issue 1/2015
Electronic ISSN: 1478-4505
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12961-016-0150-z

Other articles of this Issue 1/2015

Health Research Policy and Systems 1/2015 Go to the issue