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BMC Neurology

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Open Access 01-12-2022 | Stroke | Research

Nomogram to predict hemorrhagic transformation for acute ischemic stroke in Western China: a retrospective analysis

Authors: Keming Zhang, Jianfang Luan, Changqing Li, Mingli Chen

Published in: BMC Neurology | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Background and purpose

Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is the most alarming complication of acute ischemic stroke. We aimed to identify risk factors for HT in Chinese patients and attempted to develop a nomogram to predict individual cases.

Methods

A retrospective study was used to collect the demographic and clinical characteristics of ischemic stroke patients at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (development cohort) and Chongqing Sanbo Changan Hospital (validation cohort) from October 2013 to August 2020. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis were used to identify the risk factors of patients in the development cohort. The nomogram was generated, and internal validation was performed. We used the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) to assess the discrimination and used the Hosmer–Lemeshow test to calibrate the model. To further verify the predictability and accuracy of the model, we performed an external validation of the patients in the validation cohort.

Results

A total of 570 patients were used to generate the nomogram. After univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, the remaining 7 variables (diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, total cholesterol, fibrous protein, cerebral infarction area, NIHSS score and onset-to-treatment) were independent predictors of HT and used to compose the nomogram. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.889 (95% CI, 0.841–0.938), and the calibration was good (P = 0.487 for the Hosmer–Lemeshow test). The model was validated externally with an AUC-ROC value of 0.832 (95% CI, 0.727–0.938).

Conclusions

The nomogram prediction model in this study has good predictive ability, accuracy and discrimination, which can improve the diagnostic efficiency of HT in patients with acute ischemic stroke.

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Title: Nomogram to predict hemorrhagic transformation for acute ischemic stroke in Western China: a retrospective analysis
Authors: Keming Zhang
Jianfang Luan
Changqing Li
Mingli Chen
Publication date: 01-12-2022
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Stroke
Atrial Fibrillation
Published in: BMC Neurology / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2377
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12883-022-02678-2

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Nomogram to predict hemorrhagic transformation for acute ischemic stroke in Western China: a retrospective analysis

Abstract

Background and purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background and purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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