Steven Woloshin, Lisa M. Schwartz, H. Gilbert Welch: Know Your Chances: Understanding Heath Statistics

Excerpt

This is a math-friendly primer of numeracy that trains patients to “know the outcome; get the numbers!” Potential consumers of the primer can, rather unusually, review experimental evidence about its efficacy before they buy it, because the authors compared an earlier version of the primer to a generic, control booklet in two randomized trials [1]. The control booklet was similar in length and reading level, but unlike the primer, it did not include training on how to interpret numbers. Given the current state of numeracy, however, a potential consumer may not be able to meaningfully translate the trials’ numbers into a value-driven decision about whether or not to buy Know Your Chances. Therefore, I will apply the self-study curriculum from Know Your Chances to interpret the results of these trials and, in doing so, make full use of this unusual circumstance. …