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BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2017

Open Access 01-12-2017 | Opinion

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases

Authors: M. Elizabeth Halloran, Kari Auranen, Sarah Baird, Nicole E. Basta, Steven E. Bellan, Ron Brookmeyer, Ben S. Cooper, Victor DeGruttola, James P. Hughes, Justin Lessler, Eric T. Lofgren, Ira M. Longini, Jukka-Pekka Onnela, Berk Özler, George R. Seage, Thomas A. Smith, Alessandro Vespignani, Emilia Vynnycky, Marc Lipsitch

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2017

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Abstract

Background

Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods.

Discussion

Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects.

Conclusion

Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.
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Metadata
Title
Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases
Authors
M. Elizabeth Halloran
Kari Auranen
Sarah Baird
Nicole E. Basta
Steven E. Bellan
Ron Brookmeyer
Ben S. Cooper
Victor DeGruttola
James P. Hughes
Justin Lessler
Eric T. Lofgren
Ira M. Longini
Jukka-Pekka Onnela
Berk Özler
George R. Seage
Thomas A. Smith
Alessandro Vespignani
Emilia Vynnycky
Marc Lipsitch
Publication date
01-12-2017
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2017
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-017-0985-3

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