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CardioVascular and Interventional Radiology
Published in: CardioVascular and Interventional Radiology 2/2017

01-02-2017 | Clinical Investigation

Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model

Authors: Bin-Yan Zhong, Shi-Cheng He, Hai-Dong Zhu, Chun-Gen Wu, Wen Fang, Li Chen, Jin-He Guo, Gang Deng, Guang-Yu Zhu, Gao-Jun Teng

Published in: CardioVascular and Interventional Radiology | Issue 2/2017

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Abstract

Purpose

We aim to determine the predictors of new adjacent vertebral fractures (AVCFs) after percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCFs) and to construct a risk prediction score to estimate a 2-year new AVCF risk-by-risk factor condition.

Materials and Methods

Patients with OVCFs who underwent their first PVP between December 2006 and December 2013 at Hospital A (training cohort) and Hospital B (validation cohort) were included in this study. In training cohort, we assessed the independent risk predictors and developed the probability of new adjacent OVCFs (PNAV) score system using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. The accuracy of this system was then validated in both training and validation cohorts by concordance (c) statistic.

Results

421 patients (training cohort: n = 256; validation cohort: n = 165) were included in this study. In training cohort, new AVCFs after the first PVP treatment occurred in 33 (12.9%) patients. The independent risk factors were intradiscal cement leakage and preexisting old vertebral compression fracture(s). The estimated 2-year absolute risk of new AVCFs ranged from less than 4% in patients with neither independent risk factors to more than 45% in individuals with both factors.

Conclusions

The PNAV score is an objective and easy approach to predict the risk of new AVCFs.
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Metadata
Title
Risk Prediction of New Adjacent Vertebral Fractures After PVP for Patients with Vertebral Compression Fractures: Development of a Prediction Model
Authors
Bin-Yan Zhong
Shi-Cheng He
Hai-Dong Zhu
Chun-Gen Wu
Wen Fang
Li Chen
Jin-He Guo
Gang Deng
Guang-Yu Zhu
Gao-Jun Teng
Publication date
01-02-2017
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
CardioVascular and Interventional Radiology / Issue 2/2017
Print ISSN: 0174-1551
Electronic ISSN: 1432-086X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00270-016-1492-1

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