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Obesity Surgery

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Open Access 01-07-2018 | Original Contributions

Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery

Authors: Erik Stenberg, Yang Cao, Eva Szabo, Erik Näslund, Ingmar Näslund, Johan Ottosson

Published in: Obesity Surgery | Issue 7/2018

Abstract

Background

Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently.

Objective

This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these.

Methods

Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015.

Results

Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14–0.24, p < 0.001), age (standardized OR 1.10, 95%CI 1.03–1.17, p = 0.007), low body mass index (standardized OR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82–0.98, p = 0.012), operation year (standardized OR 0.91, 95%CI 0.85–0.97, p = 0.003), waist circumference (standardized OR 1.09, 95%CI 1.00–1.19, p = 0.059), and dyspepsia/GERD (standardized OR 1.08, 95%CI 1.02–1.15, p = 0.007) were all associated with risk for severe postoperative complication and were included in the risk prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low.

Conclusion

Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

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Title: Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery
Authors: Erik Stenberg
Yang Cao
Eva Szabo
Erik Näslund
Ingmar Näslund
Johan Ottosson
Publication date: 01-07-2018
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Obesity Surgery / Issue 7/2018
Print ISSN: 0960-8923
Electronic ISSN: 1708-0428
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11695-017-3099-2

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery

Abstract

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

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