Top

Published in:

01-02-2021 | Original Paper

Rising Gun Sales in the Wake of Mass Shootings and Gun Legislation

Authors: Janice Iwama, Jack McDevitt

Published in: Journal of Prevention | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Although gun control laws are intended to reduce exposure to gun violence in communities across the country, the passage of gun control laws is often linked to a substantial rise in the number of guns sold in the U.S. National polls indicate that most individuals purchase firearms for protection, but some cite the fear of gun-buying restrictions as the main reason for purchasing a gun. It is unclear what impact gun legislation has on patterns of gun sales, as mass shootings continue to bring the U.S. gun debate to the forefront. Using statewide data on gun transactions in Massachusetts from 2006 to 2016, we examined patterns in gun sales following the passage of gun legislation and high profile mass shootings. Specifically, we used three events to test and refine the argument during this time period: (1) the Newtown shooting, (2) the San Bernardino shooting, and (3) the passage of the 2014 Massachusetts Gun Violence Reduction Act. Results from these time-series analyses indicated different patterns in handgun sales, with significantly larger increases occurring among first-time handgun buyers. Our findings complement prior work explaining the impact of mass shootings and gun control laws on the exposure to guns in communities.

Available only for authorised users

Around 2.4 percent of records could not be linked to an individual and therefore, these records were not included in the analyses on first-time buyers.

According to Massachusetts gun law, licensed private citizens are allowed to transfer firearms between themselves, provided the state is notified of the sale within 7 days and that the individuals can legally possess the firearm(s) being transferred with the license in their possession (McDevitt & Iwama, 2017). Because licensed citizens must enter the information on the gun transfer in the Massachusetts Gun Transaction Portal within 7 days, we selected this timing in order to include handguns sold and recorded within this 7 day period.

In the supplementary tables, we included subsequent models up to 10 weeks after each event to capture long-term impacts (see tables S1 and S2).

Aisch, G., & Keller, J. (2015). What happens after calls for new gun restrictions? Sales go up. Retrieved 2 October 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/12/10/us/gun-sales-terrorism-obama-restrictions.html.

Annear, S. (2014). Committee to reduce firearm violence calls for stricter state gun laws. Retrieved 12 December 2019. https://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/2014/02/03/committee-to-reduce-firearm-violence-report-massachusetts/.

Astor, M., & Russell, K. (2018). After parkland, a new surge in state gun control laws. Retrieved 2 October 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/12/14/us/politics/gun-control-laws.html.

Bellisle, M. (2018). Gun background check system riddled with flaws. Retrieved 2 February 2020. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/gun-background-check-system-riddled-with-flaws.

Bernal, J. L., Cummins, S., & Gasparrini, A. (2017). Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: A tutorial. International Journal of Epidemiology, 46(1), 348–355. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw098.CrossRefPubMed

Castillo-Carniglia, A., Kagawa, R. M. C., Webster, D. W., Vernick, J. S., Cerda, M., & Wintemute, G. J. (2018). Comprehensive background check policy and firearm background checks in three US states. Injury Prevention, 24, 454–459. https://doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042475.CrossRef

Childress, S. (2013). How the gun-rights lobby won after Newtown. Retrieved 2 February 2020. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/how-the-gun-rights-lobby-won-after-newtown/.

Dahmen, N. S. (2018). Visually reporting mass shootings: U.S. newspaper photographic coverage of three mass school shootings. American Behavioral Scientist, 62(2), 163–180. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764218756921.CrossRef

Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2019). National instant criminal background check system. Retrieved 2 December 2019. https://www.fbi.gov/services/cjis/nics.

Follman, M., Aronsen, G., & Pan, D. (2020). US mass shootings, 1982–2020: Data from Mother Jones’ investigation. Retrieved 29 February 2020. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/.

Frum, D. (2017). Mass shootings don’t lead to inaction—They lead to loosening gun restrictions. Retrieved 29 January 2020. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/10/more-killings-more-guns/541905/.

Gorman, S., & Gorman, J. M. (2016). Why do people buy guns? Retrieved 10 January 2020. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/denying-the-grave/201608/why-do-people-buy-guns.

Hemenway, D. (2017). Fighting the silencing of gun research. Nature, 546, 345–347. https://doi.org/10.1038/546345a.CrossRefPubMed

Jones, M. A., & Stone, G. W. (2015). The U.S. gun-control paradox: Gun buyer response to congressional gun-control initiatives. Journal of Business & Economics Research, 13(4), 167–174. https://doi.org/10.19030/jber.v13i4.9449.CrossRef

Levine, P. B., & McKnight, R. (2017). Firearms and accidental deaths: Evidence from the aftermath of the Sandy Hook school shooting. Science, 358, 1324–1328. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan8179.CrossRefPubMed

Lin, P., Fei, L., Barzman, D., & Hossain, M. (2018). What have we learned from the time trend of mass shootings in the U.S.? PLoS ONE, 13(10), e0204722. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0204722.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Liu, G., & Wiebe, D. J. (2019). A time-series analysis of firearm purchasing after mass shooting events in the United States. JAMA Network Open, 2(4), e191736. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2019.1736.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Markey, E. J. (2015). Markey: Senate republicans choose gun lobby over American people in the wake of San Bernardino mass shooting. Retrieved 2 December 2016. https://www.markey.senate.gov/news/press-releases/markey-senate-republicans-choose-gun-lobby-over-american-people-in-wake-of-san-bernardino-mass-shooting.

Massachusetts Committee to Reduce Firearm Violence. (2014). Strategies for reducing gun violence in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Retrieved 2 February 2020. https://www.northeastern.edu/cssh/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Strategies-for-Reducing-Gun-Violence-in-the-Commonwealth-of-Massachusetts.pdf.

McDevitt, J., & Iwama, J. (2017). An assessment of the implementation of the act relative to the reduction in gun violence. Retrieved 12 January 2018. https://www.northeastern.edu/csshresearch/irj/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2017/10/Massachusetts-Gun-Violence-Reduction-Report.pdf.

McDowall, D., McCleary, R., Meidinger, E. E., & Hay, R. A., Jr. (1980). Interrupted time series analysis. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.CrossRef

Mendl, J. N., & Ivy, J. W. (2017). Mass shootings: The role of the media in promoting generalized imitation. American Journal of Public Health, 107(3), 368–370. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2016.303611.CrossRef

Metzger, A. (2014). Task force outlines 44 recommendations to reduce gun violence. Retrieved 2 December 2019. https://www.heraldnews.com/article/20140203/NEWS/140209289.

Miller, M., Hepburn, L., & Azrael, D. (2017). Firearm acquisition without background checks: Results of a national survey. Annals of Internal Medicine, 166(4), 233–239. https://doi.org/10.7326/M16-1590.CrossRefPubMed

Pew Research Center. (2017). America’s complex relationship with guns. Retrieved 22 November 2019. https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/06/22/americas-complex-relationship-with-guns/.

Pew Research Center. (2019). What the data says gun deaths in the U.S. Retrieved 22 November 2019. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/16/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-u-s/.

Porfiri, M., Sattanapalle, R. R., Nakayama, S., Macinko, J., & Sipahi, R. (2019). Media coverage and firearm acquisition in the aftermath of a mass shooting. Nature Human Behavior, 3, 913–921. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-019-0636-0.CrossRef

Porfiri, M., Barak-Ventura, R., & Marin, M. R. (2020). Self-Protection versus fear of stricter firearm regulations: Examining the drivers of firearm acquisitions in the aftermath of a mass shooting. Patterns. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patter.2020.100082.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Rojanasakul, M., & Migliozzi, B. (2016). After Orlando, gun sales surged. Retrieved 2 December 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-gun-sales/.

Santaella-Tenorio, J., Cerda, M., Villaveces, A., & Galea, S. (2016). What do we know about the association between firearm legislation and firearm-related injuries? Epidemiologic Reviews, 38, 140–157. https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxv012.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Schoenberg, S. (2014). Gov. Deval Patrick signs gun bill into law saying, ‘It's a good bill, an important bill.’ Retrieved 23 November 2019. https://www.masslive.com/politics/2014/08/gov_deval_patrick_signs_gun_bi.html.

Schuppe, J., Chuck, E., & Kwong, H. (2015). San Bernardino shooting is deadliest since Newtown. Retrieved 2 December 2019. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/san-bernardino-shooting/san-bernardino-shooting-deadliest-newtown-n473086.

Segev, E., & Baram-Tsabari, A. (2010). Seeking science information online: Data mining Google to better understand the roles of the media and the education system. Public Understanding of Science, 21(7), 813–829. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963662510387560.CrossRefPubMed

Smith, A. (2017). How president Trump is bad for the gun industry. Retrieved 1 August 2020. https://money.cnn.com/2017/02/03/news/companies/trump-gun-ammo-sales/.

Stroebe, W., Leander, N. P., & Kruglanski, A. W. (2017). The impact of the Orlando mass shooting on fear of victimization and gun-purchasing intentions: Not what one might expect. PLoS ONE, 12(8), e0182408. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182408.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Studdert, D. M., Zhang, Y., Rodden, J. A., Hyndman, R. J., & Wintemute, G. J. (2017). Handgun acquisitions in California after two mass shootings. Annals of Internal Medicine, 166(10), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.7326/M16-1574.CrossRef

Sumner, S. A., Layde, P. M., & Guse, C. E. (2008). Firearm death rates and association with level of firearm purchase background check. American Journal of Preventative Medicine, 35(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.03.023.CrossRef

Wallace, L. N. (2015). Responding to violence with guns: Mass shootings and gun acquisition. The Social Science Journal, 52(2), 156–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2015.03.002.CrossRef

Wilkinson, D. L., & Fagan, J. (1996). The role of firearms in violence ‘scripts’: The dynamics of gun events among adolescent males. Law and Contemporary Problems, 59(1), 55–89. https://doi.org/10.2307/1192210.CrossRef

Winter, T., & Blankstein, A. (2016). Gun sale background checks hit new high in December 2015. Retrieved 2 October 2019. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/gun-sale-background-checks-hit-new-high-december-2015-n490711.

Wintemute, G. J. (2019). Background checks for firearm purchases: Problem areas and recommendations to improve effectiveness. Health Affairs, 38(10), 1702–1710. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2019.00671.CrossRefPubMed

Title: Rising Gun Sales in the Wake of Mass Shootings and Gun Legislation
Authors: Janice Iwama
Jack McDevitt
Publication date: 01-02-2021
Publisher: Springer US
Published in: Journal of Prevention / Issue 1/2021
Print ISSN: 2731-5533
Electronic ISSN: 2731-5541
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10935-021-00622-7

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Rising Gun Sales in the Wake of Mass Shootings and Gun Legislation

Abstract

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Please log in to get access to this content

Other articles of this Issue 1/2021

Editorial Introduction: Effects of Gun Violence on Communities and Recent Theoretical Developments

Firearm Use in Violent Crime: Examining the Role of Premeditation and Motivation in Weapon Choice

Perceptions of Active Shooter Prevention and Preparation Strategies in Pennsylvania: Links to Self-Protective Behavior

Acknowledgment of Reviewers of Volume 41

Staying Out of the Way: Perceptions of Digital Non-Emergency Medical Transportation Services, Barriers, and Access to Care Among Young Black Male Survivors of Firearm Violence

Predictive Extrinsic Factors in Multiple Victim Shootings