Prognostic Nomogram for Disease-Specific Survival in Patients with Non-metastatic Ampullary Carcinoma After Surgery

The aim of this study was to establish and validate an individualized nomogram for predicting disease-specific survival (DSS) in patients with non-metastatic ampullary carcinoma after surgery.

The nomogram was prepared using retrospective data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, and included 2022 patients (training dataset: 1276; validation dataset: 746 patients) with non-metastatic ampullary carcinoma who were surgically treated between 2004 and 2014. Cox multivariate regression was performed to identify independent risk factors. The predictive accuracy was determined using the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves. Results were validated internally using bootstrap resampling, and externally against the validation dataset.

The median follow-up for the training dataset was 25.5 months (range 1–143), the median survival time was 52 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 41.67–62.33], and the postoperative 1-, 3-, and 5-year DSS rates were 86.7%, 57.3%, and 47.2%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis demonstrated that age, grade, tumor size, lymph node ratio, extension range, and histology were independent risk factors for DSS. The C-index of the internal validation dataset for predicting DSS was 0.70 (95% CI 0.68–0.72), which was superior to that of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging, i.e. 0.64 (95% CI 0.62–0.66; p < 0.001). The 5-year DSS and median DSS time for the low-risk group were significantly greater than those for the high-risk group (p < 0.001).

Our nomogram reliably and accurately predicted DSS in patients with non-metastatic ampullary carcinoma after surgery. This model may help clinicians in their decision making.