Predicting Time on Prolonged Benefits for Injured Workers with Acute Back Pain

Introduction Some workers with work-related compensated back pain (BP) experience a troubling course of disability. Factors associated with delayed recovery among workers with work-related compensated BP were explored. Methods This is a cohort study of workers with compensated BP in 2005 in Ontario, Canada. Follow up was 2 years. Data was collected from employers, employees and health-care providers by the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board (WSIB). Exclusion criteria were: (1) no-lost-time claims, (2) >30 days between injury and claim filing, (3) <4 weeks benefits duration, and (4) age >65 years. Using proportional hazard models, we examined the prognostic value of information collected in the first 4 weeks after injury. Outcome measures were time on benefits during the first episode and time until recurrence after the first episode. Results Of 6,657 workers, 1,442 were still on full benefits after 4 weeks. Our final model containing age, physical demands, opioid prescription, union membership, availability of a return-to-work program, employer doubt about work-relatedness of injury, worker’s recovery expectations, participation in a rehabilitation program and communication of functional ability was able to identify prolonged claims to a fair degree [area under the curve (AUC) = .79, 95 % confidence interval (CI) .74–.84]. A model containing age, sex, physical demands, opioid prescription and communication of functional ability was less successful at predicting time until recurrence (AUC = .61, 95 % CI .57, .65). Conclusions Factors contained in information currently collected by the WSIB during the first 4 weeks on benefits can predict prolonged claims, but not recurrent claims.