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Trials
Published in: Trials 1/2022

Open Access 01-12-2022 | Pediatric Emergency Medicine | Methodology

Remote, real-time expert elicitation to determine the prior probability distribution for Bayesian sample size determination in international randomised controlled trials: Bronchiolitis in Infants Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone (BIPED) study

Authors: Jingxian Lan, Amy C. Plint, Stuart R. Dalziel, Terry P. Klassen, Martin Offringa, Anna Heath, on behalf of the Pediatric Emergency Research Canada (PERC) KIDSCAN/PREDICT BIPED Study Group

Published in: Trials | Issue 1/2022

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Abstract

Background

Bayesian methods are increasing in popularity in clinical research. The design of Bayesian clinical trials requires a prior distribution, which can be elicited from experts. In diseases with international differences in management, the elicitation exercise should recruit internationally, making a face-to-face elicitation session expensive and more logistically challenging. Thus, we used a remote, real-time elicitation exercise to construct prior distributions. These elicited distributions were then used to determine the sample size of the Bronchiolitis in Infants with Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone (BIPED) study, an international randomised controlled trial in the Pediatric Emergency Research Network (PERN). The BIPED study aims to determine whether the combination of epinephrine and dexamethasone, compared to placebo, is effective in reducing hospital admission for infants presenting with bronchiolitis to the emergency department.

Methods

We developed a Web-based tool to support the elicitation of the probability of hospitalisation for infants with bronchiolitis. Experts participated in online workshops to specify their individual prior distributions, which were aggregated using the equal-weighted linear pooling method. Experts were then invited to provide their comments on the aggregated distribution. The average length criterion determined the BIPED sample size.

Results

Fifteen paediatric emergency medicine clinicians from Canada, the USA, Australia and New Zealand participated in three workshops to provide their elicited prior distributions. The mean elicited probability of admission for infants with bronchiolitis was slightly lower for those receiving epinephrine and dexamethasone compared to supportive care in the aggregate distribution. There were substantial differences in the individual beliefs but limited differences between North America and Australasia. From this aggregate distribution, a sample size of 410 patients per arm results in an average 95% credible interval length of less than 9% and a relative predictive power of 90%.

Conclusion

Remote, real-time expert elicitation is a feasible, useful and practical tool to determine a prior distribution for international randomised controlled trials. Bayesian methods can then determine the trial sample size using these elicited prior distributions. The ease and low cost of remote expert elicitation mean that this approach is suitable for future international randomised controlled trials.

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Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Remote, real-time expert elicitation to determine the prior probability distribution for Bayesian sample size determination in international randomised controlled trials: Bronchiolitis in Infants Placebo Versus Epinephrine and Dexamethasone (BIPED) study
Authors
Jingxian Lan
Amy C. Plint
Stuart R. Dalziel
Terry P. Klassen
Martin Offringa
Anna Heath
on behalf of the Pediatric Emergency Research Canada (PERC) KIDSCAN/PREDICT BIPED Study Group
Publication date
01-12-2022
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Trials / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1745-6215
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s13063-022-06240-w

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