Follow-up after bariatric surgery: is it time to tailor it? Analysis of early predictive factors of 3-year weight loss predictors of unsuccess in bariatric patients

Bariatric surgery (BS) is the most effective treatment strategy for obesity. Nevertheless, a subset of patients does not reach a successful weight loss or experience long-term weight regain. Conflicting evidence exists regarding predictors of BS outcomes. We aimed to define the early factors linked to 3 year unsuccessful weight loss in order to promote a tailored close follow-up. We enrolled 443 patients who underwent BS from January 2014 to December 2018 with a 3 year follow-up. An unsuccessful BS outcome was defined as a percentage of total weight loss (%TWL) < 20. We compared the characteristics between successful and unsuccessful patients in order to identify predictor factors of unsuccess after surgery. We found that the proportion of patients with unsuccessful weight loss progressively increased from one to three years after BS. In a multiple regression model, only 1 month %TWL and sleeve gastrectomy (SG) were significantly associated with 3 year unsuccessful weight loss. We stratified our cohort in four groups according to the risk of BS unsuccess, in terms of 1 month %TWL and type of surgery (SG vs gastric bypass). Interestingly, groups showed a significant difference in terms of %TWL at each follow-up point. Patients submitted to SG with lower 1 month %TWL must be considered at higher risk of future weight regain; consequently, they require a tailored and closer follow-up.