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Annals of Surgical Oncology
Published in: Annals of Surgical Oncology 8/2016

01-08-2016 | Hepatobiliary Tumors

Nomograms for Pre-operative and Post-operative Prediction of Long-Term Survival of Patients Who Underwent Repeat Hepatectomy for Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Authors: Qifei Zou, MD, Jun Li, MD, Dong Wu, MD, Zhenlin Yan, MD, Xuying Wan, MD, Kui Wang, MD, Lehua Shi, MD, Wan Yee Lau, MD, Mengchao Wu, MD, Feng Shen, MD

Published in: Annals of Surgical Oncology | Issue 8/2016

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Abstract

Background

Repeat hepatectomy (re-hepatectomy) is an effective treatment for patients with intrahepatic recurrence following liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

Objective

This study aimed to develop nomograms for predicting prognosis after re-hepatectomy.

Methods

The data of 635 patients who underwent re-hepatectomy for recurrent HCC at the Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital between 2004 and 2010 were prospectively collected. Multivariable Cox regression analyses based on data obtained before and after re-hepatectomy were performed to select independent predictors of recurrence to death survival (RTDS) which were incorporated into the pre- or post-re-hepatectomy nomograms. Discrimination and calibration of the nomograms were measured using the concordance index (C-index), Kaplan–Meier curves, and calibration plots.

Results

The 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 96.9, 74.8, and 47.8 %, respectively, and the corresponding RTDS rates were 75.8, 45.7, and 37.6 %, respectively. Tumor size and number at the initial and recurrent stages, time to recurrence from the initial hepatectomy, hepatitis B virus deoxyribonucleic acid level and microvascular invasion were selected into the two nomograms. The C-indexes for predicting RTDS were 0.72 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.70–0.74] and 0.77 (95 % CI 0.74–0.80) for the pre- or post-re-hepatectomy nomograms, respectively. The calibration curves for the probability of 5-year RTDS after re-hepatectomy showed optimal agreement between the prediction shown in the nomograms and the actual observations. Both nomograms were able to accurately stratify patients into four distinct incremental prognostic subgroups.

Conclusion

The proposed nomograms have shown accurate RTDS prediction for patients with intrahepatic recurrent HCC.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Nomograms for Pre-operative and Post-operative Prediction of Long-Term Survival of Patients Who Underwent Repeat Hepatectomy for Recurrent Hepatocellular Carcinoma
Authors
Qifei Zou, MD
Jun Li, MD
Dong Wu, MD
Zhenlin Yan, MD
Xuying Wan, MD
Kui Wang, MD
Lehua Shi, MD
Wan Yee Lau, MD
Mengchao Wu, MD
Feng Shen, MD
Publication date
01-08-2016
Publisher
Springer International Publishing
Published in
Annals of Surgical Oncology / Issue 8/2016
Print ISSN: 1068-9265
Electronic ISSN: 1534-4681
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-016-5136-0

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