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Published in: Journal of Neurology 8/2020

01-08-2020 | Multiple Sclerosis | Original Communication

Predicting onset of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis using genetic and non-genetic factors

Authors: Elina Misicka, Corriene Sept, Farren B. S. Briggs

Published in: Journal of Neurology | Issue 8/2020

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Abstract

Background

Predicting the transition from relapsing–remitting (RR) to secondary-progressive (SP) multiple sclerosis (MS) from early in the disease course is challenging.

Objective

To construct prediction models for SPMS using sociodemographic and self-reported clinical measures that would be available at/near MS onset, with specific considerations for MS genetic risk factors.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study based on 1295 white, non-Hispanic individuals. Cox proportional hazard prediction models were generated for three censored SPMS outcomes (ever transitioning, transitioning within 10 years, and transitioning within 20 years) using sociodemographic, comorbid health information, symptomatology, and other measures of early disease activity. HLADRB1*15:01 and HLA-A*02:01, as well as a genetic risk score, were iteratively considered in each model. We also explored the relationships for all 200 MS risk variants located outside the major histocompatibility complex. Nomograms were generated for the final prediction models.

Results

An older age of MS onset and being male predicted a short latency to SPMS, while a longer interval between the first two relapses predicted a much longer latency. Comorbid conditions and onset symptomatology variably predicted the risk for transitioning to SPMS for each censored outcome. The most notable observation was that HLA-A*02:01, which confers decreased risk for MS, also contributed to decreased hazards for SPMS.

Conclusions

These results have the potential to advance prognostication for a person with MS using information available at or near onset, potentially improving care and quality of life for those who live with MS.
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Metadata
Title
Predicting onset of secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis using genetic and non-genetic factors
Authors
Elina Misicka
Corriene Sept
Farren B. S. Briggs
Publication date
01-08-2020
Publisher
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Published in
Journal of Neurology / Issue 8/2020
Print ISSN: 0340-5354
Electronic ISSN: 1432-1459
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00415-020-09850-z

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