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BMC Infectious Diseases
Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases 1/2024

Open Access 01-12-2024 | Mpox | Research

Modelling the impact of human behavior using a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network for transmission and control of Mpox

Authors: Qiaojuan Jia, Ling Xue, Ran Sui, Junqi Huo

Published in: BMC Infectious Diseases | Issue 1/2024

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies and analyze the impact of human behavior on the transmission of Mpox. The results can provide guidance to public health authorities on comprehensive prevention and control for the new Mpox virus strain in the Democratic Republic of Congo as of December 2023.

Methods

We develop a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network model. The basic reproduction number is calculated using the next-generation matrix approach. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm is used to fit Mpox cases in Canada into the network model. Numerical simulations are used to assess the impact of mitigation strategies and human behavior on the final epidemic size.

Results

Our results show that the contact transmission rate of low-risk groups and susceptible humans increases when the contact transmission rate of high-risk groups and susceptible humans is controlled as the Mpox epidemic spreads. The contact transmission rate of high-risk groups after May 18, 2022, is approximately 20% lower than that before May 18, 2022. Our findings indicate a positive correlation between the basic reproduction number and the level of heterogeneity in human contacts, with the basic reproduction number estimated at 2.3475 (95% CI: 0.0749–6.9084). Reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week effectively reduces the reproduction number to below one.

Conclusion

We need to pay attention to the re-emergence of the epidemics caused by low-risk groups when an outbreak dominated by high-risk groups is under control. Numerical simulations show that reducing the average number of sexual contacts to two per week is effective in slowing down the rapid spread of the epidemic. Our findings offer guidance for the public health authorities of the Democratic Republic of Congo in developing effective mitigation strategies.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Modelling the impact of human behavior using a two-layer Watts-Strogatz network for transmission and control of Mpox
Authors
Qiaojuan Jia
Ling Xue
Ran Sui
Junqi Huo
Publication date
01-12-2024
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Infectious Diseases / Issue 1/2024
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2334
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-024-09239-7

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