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BMC Cancer
Published in: BMC Cancer 1/2021

Open Access 01-12-2021 | Metastasis | Research article

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict survival outcome among epithelial ovarian cancer patients with site-distant metastases: a population-based study

Authors: Bo Wang, Shixuan Wang, Wu Ren

Published in: BMC Cancer | Issue 1/2021

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Abstract

Background

Increasing evidence indicates that site-distant metastases are associated with survival outcomes in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic values of site-distant metastases and clinical factors and develop a prognostic nomogram score individually predicting overall survival (OS, equivalent to all-cause mortality) and cancer specific survival (CSS, equivalent to cancer-specific mortality) in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer.

Methods

We retrospectively collected data on patients with epithelial ovarian cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1975 and 2016. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to identify survival trajectories. A nomogram score was used to predict long-term survival probability. A comparison between the nomogram and the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO 2018) staging system was conducted using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve.

Results

A total of 131,050 patients were included, 18.2, 7.8 and 66.1% had localized, regional and distant metastases, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified several prognostic factors for OS including race, grade, histology, FIGO staging, surgery, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, and lymphatic metastasis. Prognostic factors for CSS included grade, site, FIGO staging, surgery, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis, lymphatic metastasis, and insurance. Following bootstrap correction, the C-index of OS and CSS was 0.791 and 0.752, respectively. These nomograms showed superior performance compared with the FIGO 2018 staging criteria (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

A novel prognostic nomogram score provides better prognostic performance than the FIGO 2018 staging system. These nomograms contribute to directing clinical treatment and prognosis assessment in patients harboring site-distant metastases.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
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Metadata
Title
Development and validation of a nomogram to predict survival outcome among epithelial ovarian cancer patients with site-distant metastases: a population-based study
Authors
Bo Wang
Shixuan Wang
Wu Ren
Publication date
01-12-2021
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Cancer / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2407
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-021-07977-4

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