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Population Health Metrics
Published in: Population Health Metrics 1/2019

Open Access 01-12-2019 | Research

Estimating Adult Mortality in Papua New Guinea, 2011

Authors: Urarang Kitur, Tim Adair, Alan D. Lopez

Published in: Population Health Metrics | Issue 1/2019

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Abstract

Background

Mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is poorly measured because routine reporting of deaths is incomplete and inaccurate. This study provides the first estimates in the academic literature of adult mortality (45q15) in PNG by province and sex. These results are compared to a Composite Index of provincial socio-economic factors and health access.

Methods

Adult mortality estimates (45q15) by province and sex were derived using the orphanhood method from data reported in the 2000 and 2011 national censuses. Male adult mortality was adjusted based on the estimated incompleteness of mortality reporting. The Composite Index was developed using the mean of education, economic and health access indicators from various data sources.

Results

Adult mortality for PNG in 2011 was estimated as 269 per 1000 for males and 237 for females. It ranged from 197 in Simbu to 356 in Sandaun province among men, and from 164 in Western Highlands to 326 in Gulf province among women. Provinces with a low Composite Index (Sandaun, Gulf, Enga and Southern Highlands) had comparatively high levels of adult mortality for both sexes, while provinces with a higher Composite Index (National Capital District and Manus) reported lower adult mortality.

Conclusions

Adult mortality in PNG remains high compared with other developing countries. Provincial variations in mortality correlate with the Composite Index. Health and development policy in PNG needs to urgently address the main causes of persistent high premature adult mortality, particularly in less developed provinces.
Footnotes
1
UN 45q15 figures for 2011 were calculated by interpolating the UN’s 2005–2010 and 2010–2015 figures assuming an arithmetic rate of change.
 
2
In this study, the UN General model life table is used.
 
3
The average number of reported household deaths from the UN General, Modified Logit and Log-Quad model life tables was used.
 
4
Each value was adjusted to a normally distributed percentage ranging from 0 to 100% calculated using the mean and standard deviation of all values in that particular indicator.
 
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Metadata
Title
Estimating Adult Mortality in Papua New Guinea, 2011
Authors
Urarang Kitur
Tim Adair
Alan D. Lopez
Publication date
01-12-2019
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Population Health Metrics / Issue 1/2019
Electronic ISSN: 1478-7954
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12963-019-0184-x

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