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Human Resources for Health
Published in: Human Resources for Health 1/2021

Open Access 01-12-2021 | Research

A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Samantha Gailey, Tim A. Bruckner, Tracy Kuo Lin, Jenny X. Liu, Mohammed Alluhidan, Taghred Alghaith, Hussah Alghodaier, Nabiha Tashkandi, Christopher H. Herbst, Mariam M. Hamza, Nahar Alazemi

Published in: Human Resources for Health | Issue 1/2021

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Abstract

Background

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), as part of its 2030 National Transformation Program, set a goal of transforming the healthcare sector to increase access to, and improve the quality and efficiency of, health services. To assist with the workforce planning component, we projected the needed number of physicians and nurses into 2030. We developed a new needs-based methodology since previous global benchmarks of health worker concentration may not apply to the KSA.

Methods

We constructed an epidemiologic “needs-based” model that takes into account the health needs of the KSA population, cost-effective treatment service delivery models, and worker productivity. This model relied heavily on up-to-date epidemiologic and workforce surveys in the KSA. We used demographic population projections to estimate the number of nurses and physicians needed to provide this core set of services into 2030. We also assessed several alternative scenarios and policy decisions related to scaling, task-shifting, and enhanced public health campaigns.

Results

When projected to 2030, the baseline needs-based estimate is approximately 75,000 workers (5788 physicians and 69,399 nurses). This workforce equates to 2.05 physicians and nurses per 1000 population. Alternative models based on different scenarios and policy decisions indicate that the actual needs for physicians and nurses may range from 1.64 to 3.05 per 1000 population in 2030.

Conclusions

Based on our projections, the KSA will not face a needs-based health worker shortage in 2030. However, alternative model projections raise important policy and planning issues regarding various strategies the KSA may pursue in improving quality and efficiency of the existing workforce. More broadly, where country-level data are available, our needs-based strategy can serve as a useful step-by-step workforce planning tool to complement more economic demand-based workforce projections.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Authors
Samantha Gailey
Tim A. Bruckner
Tracy Kuo Lin
Jenny X. Liu
Mohammed Alluhidan
Taghred Alghaith
Hussah Alghodaier
Nabiha Tashkandi
Christopher H. Herbst
Mariam M. Hamza
Nahar Alazemi
Publication date
01-12-2021
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Human Resources for Health / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1478-4491
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12960-021-00597-w

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