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01-12-2022 | Stroke | Research article

Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals

Authors: Ruiqi Zhang, Jil Billy Mamza, Tamsin Morris, George Godfrey, Folkert W. Asselbergs, Spiros Denaxas, Harry Hemingway, Amitava Banerjee

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2022

Abstract

Background

Cardiovascular and renal diseases (CVRD) are major causes of mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of lifetime risk have neither considered all CVRD together nor the relative contribution of major risk factors to combined disease burden.

Methods

In a population-based cohort study using national electronic health records, we studied 473,399 individuals with T2D in England 2007–2018. Lifetime risk of individual and combined major adverse renal cardiovascular events, MARCE (including CV death and CVRD: heart failure; chronic kidney disease; myocardial infarction; stroke or peripheral artery disease), were estimated, accounting for baseline CVRD status and competing risk of death. We calculated population attributable risk for individual CVRD components. Ideal cardiovascular health was defined by blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, smoking, physical activity, diet, and body mass index (i.e. modifiable risk factors).

Results

In individuals with T2D, lifetime risk of MARCE was 80% in those free from CVRD and was 97%, 93%, 98%, 89% and 91% in individuals with heart failure, chronic kidney disease, myocardial infarction, stroke and peripheral arterial disease, respectively at baseline. Among CVRD-free individuals, lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease was highest (54%), followed by CV death (41%), heart failure (29%), stroke (20%), myocardial infarction (19%) and peripheral arterial disease (9%). In those with HF only, 75% of MARCE after index T2D can be attributed to HF after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities. Compared with those with > 1, < 3 and ≥3 modifiable health risk behaviours, achieving ideal cardiovascular health could reduce MARCE by approximately 41.5%, 23.6% and 17.2%, respectively, in the T2D population.

Conclusions

Four out of five individuals with T2D free from CVRD, and nearly all those with history of CVRD, will develop MARCE over their lifetime. Early preventive measures in T2D patients are clinical, public health and policy priorities.

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Title: Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals
Authors: Ruiqi Zhang
Jil Billy Mamza
Tamsin Morris
George Godfrey
Folkert W. Asselbergs
Spiros Denaxas
Harry Hemingway
Amitava Banerjee
Publication date: 01-12-2022
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keywords: Stroke
Myocardial Infarction
Heart Failure
Chronic Kidney Disease
Type 2 Diabetes
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2022
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-022-02234-2

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Lifetime risk of cardiovascular-renal disease in type 2 diabetes: a population-based study in 473,399 individuals

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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