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01-12-2021 | COVID-19 | Research article

Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study

Authors: Wenlong Zhu, Mengxi Zhang, Jinhua Pan, Ye Yao, Weibing Wang

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

From 2 January to 14 February 2021, a local outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, with a population of 10 million. We analyzed the characteristics of the local outbreak of COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang and evaluated the effects of serial interventions.

Methods

Publicly available data, which included age, sex, date of diagnosis, and other patient information, were used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang. The maximum likelihood method and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method were used to estimate the serial interval and incubation period, respectively. The impact of incubation period and different interventions were simulated using a well-fitted SEIR^+q model.

Results

From 2 January to 14 February 2021, there were 869 patients with symptomatic COVID-19 in Shijiazhuang, and most cases (89.6%) were confirmed before 20 January. Overall, 40.2% of the cases were male, 16.3% were aged 0 to 19 years, and 21.9% were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic but then became symptomatic. The estimated incubation period was 11.6 days (95% CI 10.6, 12.7 days) and the estimated serial interval was 6.6 days (0.025^th, 0.975^th: 0.6, 20.0 days). The results of the SEIR^+q model indicated that a longer incubation period led to a longer epidemic period. If the comprehensive quarantine measures were reduced by 10%, then the nucleic acid testing would need to increase by 20% or more to minimize the cumulative number of cases.

Conclusions

Incubation period was longer than serial interval suggested that more secondary transmission may occur before symptoms onset. The long incubation period made it necessary to extend the isolation period to control the outbreak. Timely contact tracing and implementation of a centralized quarantine quickly contained this epidemic in Shijiazhuang. Large-scale nucleic acid testing also helped to identify cases and reduce virus transmission.

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Title: Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study
Authors: Wenlong Zhu
Mengxi Zhang
Jinhua Pan
Ye Yao
Weibing Wang
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: COVID-19
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02178-z

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Springer Medicine

Effects of prolonged incubation period and centralized quarantine on the COVID-19 outbreak in Shijiazhuang, China: a modeling study

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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