Top

Published in:

01-12-2021 | COVID-19 | Research article

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

Authors: Kathleen M. O’Reilly, Frank Sandman, David Allen, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Amy Douglas, Lesley Larkin, Kerry L. M. Wong, Marc Baguelin, Ralph S. Baric, Lisa C. Lindesmith, Richard A. Goldstein, Judith Breuer, W. John Edmunds

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

To reduce the coronavirus disease burden in England, along with many other countries, the government implemented a package of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that have also impacted other transmissible infectious diseases such as norovirus. It is unclear what future norovirus disease incidence is likely to look like upon lifting these restrictions.

Methods

Here we use a mathematical model of norovirus fitted to community incidence data in England to project forward expected incidence based on contact surveys that have been collected throughout 2020–2021.

Results

We report that susceptibility to norovirus infection has likely increased between March 2020 and mid-2021. Depending upon assumptions of future contact patterns incidence of norovirus that is similar to pre-pandemic levels or an increase beyond what has been previously reported is likely to occur once restrictions are lifted. Should adult contact patterns return to 80% of pre-pandemic levels, the incidence of norovirus will be similar to previous years. If contact patterns return to pre-pandemic levels, there is a potential for the expected annual incidence to be up to 2-fold larger than in a typical year. The age-specific incidence is similar across all ages.

Conclusions

Continued national surveillance for endemic diseases such as norovirus will be essential after NPIs are lifted to allow healthcare services to adequately prepare for a potential increase in cases and hospital pressures beyond what is typically experienced.

Available only for authorised users

Lillie PJ, Samson A, Li A, Adams K, Capstick R, Barlow GD, et al. Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): the first two patients in the UK with person to person transmission. J Infect. 2020;80(5):578–606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.02.020.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Jarvis CI, Van Zandvoort K, Gimma A, Prem K, Auzenbergs M, O’Reilly K, et al. Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK. BMC Med. 2020;18(1):124. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01597-8.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Gibbs H, Nightingale E, Liu Y, Cheshire J, Danon L, Smeeth L, et al. Detecting behavioural changes in human movement to inform the spatial scale of interventions against COVID-19. preprint. Epidemiology. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.26.20219550.

Douglas A, Sandmann FG, Allen DJ, Celma CC, Beard S, Larkin L. Impact of COVID-19 on national surveillance of norovirus in England and potential risk of increased disease activity in 2021. J Hosp Infect. 2021;112:124–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2021.03.006.CrossRefPubMed

Bruggink LD, Garcia-Clapes A, Tran T, Druce JD, Thorley BR. Decreased incidence of enterovirus and norovirus infections during the COVID-19 pandemic, Victoria, Australia, 2020. Commun Dis Intell. 2018;2021:45. https://doi.org/10.33321/cdi.2021.45.5.CrossRef

Foley DA, Yeoh DK, Minney-Smith CA, Martin AC, Mace AO, Sikazwe CT, et al. The interseasonal resurgence of respiratory syncytial virus in Australian children following the reduction of coronavirus disease 2019–related public health measures. Clin Infect Dis. 2021;ciaa1906. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1906

Lennon RP, Griffin C, Miller EL, Dong H, Rabago D, Zgierska AE. Norovirus infections drop 49% in the United States with strict COVID-19 public health interventions. Acta Med Acad. 2020;49(3):278–80. https://doi.org/10.5644/ama2006-124.317.CrossRefPubMed

Nachamkin I, Richard-Greenblatt M, Yu M, Bui H. Reduction in sporadic norovirus infections following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019–2020, Philadelphia. Infect Dis Ther. 2021;10(3):1793–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40121-021-00473-z.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Anon. COVID-19 response - spring 2021 (Summary). GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-response-spring-2021/covid-19-response-spring-2021-summary. Accessed 2 July 2021.

10.

Esposito S, Principi N. Norovirus vaccine: priorities for future research and development. Front Immunol. 2020;11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2020.01383.

11.

Sandmann FG, Shallcross L, Adams N, Allen DJ, Coen PG, Jeanes A, et al. Estimating the hospital burden of norovirus-associated gastroenteritis in England and its opportunity costs for nonadmitted patients. Clin Infect Dis. 2018;67(5):693–700. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciy167.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

12.

Pires SM, Fischer-Walker CL, Lanata CF, Devleesschauwer B, Hall AJ, Kirk MD, et al. Aetiology-specific estimates of the global and regional incidence and mortality of diarrhoeal diseases commonly transmitted through food. PLoS One. 2015;10(12):e0142927. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0142927.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

13.

Nielsen J, Vestergaard LS, Richter L, Schmid D, Bustos N, Asikainen T, et al. European all-cause excess and influenza-attributable mortality in the 2017/18 season: should the burden of influenza B be reconsidered? Clin Microbiol Infect. 2019;25(10):1266–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cmi.2019.02.011.CrossRefPubMed

14.

Tam CC, Rodrigues LC, Viviani L, Dodds JP, Evans MR, Hunter PR, et al. Longitudinal study of infectious intestinal disease in the UK (IID2 study): incidence in the community and presenting to general practice. Gut. 2012;61(1):69–77. https://doi.org/10.1136/gut.2011.238386.CrossRefPubMed

15.

PHE. National norovirus and rotavirus bulletin: management information. GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/national-norovirus-and-rotavirus-bulletin-management-information. Accessed 23 Jun 2021.

16.

Lindesmith L, Moe C, Marionneau S, Ruvoen N, Jiang X, Lindblad L, et al. Human susceptibility and resistance to Norwalk virus infection. Nat Med. 2003;9(5):548–53. https://doi.org/10.1038/nm860.CrossRefPubMed

17.

Teunis PFM, Le Guyader FS, Liu P, Ollivier J, Moe CL. Noroviruses are highly infectious but there is strong variation in host susceptibility and virus pathogenicity. Epidemics. 2020;32:100401. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2020.100401.CrossRefPubMed

18.

Chhabra P, de Graaf M, Parra GI, Chan MC, Green K, Martella V, et al. Updated classification of norovirus genogroups and genotypes. J Gen Virol. 2019;100(10):1393–406. https://doi.org/10.1099/jgv.0.001318.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

19.

Lopman B, Vennema H, Kohli E, Pothier P, Sanchez A, Negredo A, et al. Increase in viral gastroenteritis outbreaks in Europe and epidemic spread of new norovirus variant. Lancet. 2004;363(9410):682–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(04)15641-9.CrossRefPubMed

20.

FSA research suggests new higher estimates for the role of food in UK illness. Food Standards Agency. https://www.food.gov.uk/news-alerts/news/fsa-research-suggests-new-higher-estimates-for-the-role-of-food-in-uk-illness. Accessed 23 June 2021.

21.

Lopman B, Simmons K, Gambhir M, Vinjé J, Parashar U. Epidemiologic implications of asymptomatic reinfection: a mathematical modeling study of norovirus. Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(4):507–12. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwt287.CrossRefPubMed

22.

Lindesmith LC, Donaldson EF, Lobue AD, Cannon JL, Zheng D-P, Vinje J, et al. Mechanisms of GII.4 norovirus persistence in human populations. PLos Med. 2008;5(2):269–90. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050031.CrossRef

23.

Smith AJ, McCARTHY N, Saldana L, Ihekweazu C, McPHEDRAN K, Adak GK, et al. A large foodborne outbreak of norovirus in diners at a restaurant in England between January and February 2009. Epidemiol Infect. 2012;140(9):1695–701. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268811002305.CrossRefPubMed

24.

Rockx B, De Wit M, Vennema H, Vinjé J, De Bruin E, Van Duynhoven Y, et al. Natural history of human calicivirus infection: a prospective cohort study. Clin Infect Dis. 2002;35(3):246–53. https://doi.org/10.1086/341408.CrossRefPubMed

25.

Sukhrie FHA, Teunis P, Vennema H, Copra C, Beersma MFCT, Bogerman J, et al. Nosocomial transmission of norovirus is mainly caused by symptomatic cases. Clin Infect Dis. 2012;54(7):931–7. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/cir971.CrossRefPubMed

26.

Leon JS, Kingsley DH, Montes JS, Richards GP, Lyon GM, Abdulhafid GM, et al. Randomized, double-blinded clinical trial for human norovirus inactivation in oysters by high hydrostatic pressure processing. Appl Environ Microbiol. 2011;77(15):5476–82. https://doi.org/10.1128/AEM.02801-10.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

27.

Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008;5(3):e74. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

28.

Amar CFL, East CL, Gray J, Iturriza-Gomara M, Maclure EA, McLauchlin J. Detection by PCR of eight groups of enteric pathogens in 4,627 faecal samples: re-examination of the English case-control Infectious Intestinal Disease Study (1993-1996). Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2007;26(5):311–23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10096-007-0290-8.CrossRefPubMed

29.

Ramani S, Estes MK, Atmar RL. Correlates of protection against norovirus infection and disease—where are we now, where do we go? PLoS Pathog. 2016;12(4):e1005334. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1005334.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

30.

Cannon JL, Lindesmith LC, Donaldson EF, Saxe L, Baric RS, Vinje J. Herd immunity to GII.4 noroviruses is supported by outbreak patient sera. J Virol. 2009;83:5363–74.CrossRef

31.

Harris JP, Iturriza-Gomara M, O’Brien SJ. Re-assessing the total burden of norovirus circulating in the United Kingdom population. Vaccine. 2017;35(6):853–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.01.009.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

32.

Jarvis CI, Gimma A, van Zandvoort K, Wong KLM, Abbas K, Villabona-Arenas CJ, et al. The impact of local and national restrictions in response to COVID-19 on social contacts in England: a longitudinal natural experiment. BMC Med. 2021;19(1):52. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01924-7.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

33.

Anon. Timeline of UK government coronavirus lockdowns. The Institute for Government. 2021. https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/uk-government-coronavirus-lockdowns. Accessed 22 Jun 2021.

34.

Gov.uk. The Health Protection (Notification) Regulations 2010. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2010/659/contents/made. Accessed 7 Jul 2021.

35.

Sandmann FG, Jit M, Robotham JV, Deeny SR. Burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in England per winter, 2010/11–2015/16. J Hosp Infect. 2017;97(1):79–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2017.05.015.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

36.

O’Dowd A. NHS waiting list hits 14 year record high of 4.7 million people. BMJ. 2021;373:n995.CrossRef

37.

PHE. Six major respiratory viruses reported from PHE and NHS laboratories (SGSS) in England and Wales between week 1, 2011 and week 29, 2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/respiratory-virus-circulation-england-and-wales/six-major-respiratory-viruses-reported-from-phe-and-nhs-laboratories-sgss-in-england-and-wales-between-week-1-2009-and-week-23-2019. Accessed 26 Aug 2021.

38.

Baker RE, Park SW, Yang W, Vecchi GA, Metcalf CJE, Grenfell BT. The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections. PNAS. 2020;117(48):30547–53. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2013182117.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

39.

Sullivan SG, Carlson S, Cheng AC, Chilver MB, Dwyer DE, Irwin M, et al. Where has all the influenza gone? The impact of COVID-19 on the circulation of influenza and other respiratory viruses, Australia, March to September 2020. Eurosurveillance. 2020;25(47):2001847. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.47.2001847.CrossRefPubMedCentral

40.

Davies NG. Klepac P, Liu Y, Prem K, Jit M, CMMID COVID-19 working group, et al. Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics. Nat Med. 2020;26(8):1205–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0962-9.CrossRefPubMed

41.

Harris JP, Iturriza-Gomara M, O’Brien SJ. Estimating disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in community cases of norovirus in England. Viruses-Basel. 2019;11(2):184. https://doi.org/10.3390/v11020184.CrossRef

42.

Quee FA, de Hoog MLA, Schuurman R, Bruijning-Verhagen P. Community burden and transmission of acute gastroenteritis caused by norovirus and rotavirus in the Netherlands (RotaFam): a prospective household-based cohort study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2020;20(5):598–606. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30058-X.CrossRefPubMed

43.

Chan MC-W, Roy S, Bonifacio J, Zhang L-Y, Chhabra P, Chan JCM, et al. Detection of norovirus variant GII.4 Hong Kong in Asia and Europe, 2017-2019. Emerg Infect Dis. 2021;27(1):289–93. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2701.203351.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Title: Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study
Authors: Kathleen M. O’Reilly
Frank Sandman
David Allen
Christopher I. Jarvis
Amy Gimma
Amy Douglas
Lesley Larkin
Kerry L. M. Wong
Marc Baguelin
Ralph S. Baric
Lisa C. Lindesmith
Richard A. Goldstein
Judith Breuer
W. John Edmunds
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: COVID-19
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02153-8

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Predicted norovirus resurgence in 2021–2022 due to the relaxation of nonpharmaceutical interventions associated with COVID-19 restrictions in England: a mathematical modeling study

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Please log in to get access to this content

Other articles of this Issue 1/2021

The risk of ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke in Chinese adults with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations < 70 mg/dL

Optimizing antiviral treatment for seasonal influenza in the USA: a mathematical modeling analysis

SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Malawian blood donors: an analysis of seroprevalence and variant dynamics between January 2020 and July 2021

Efficient SARS-CoV-2 surveillance strategies to prevent deadly outbreaks in vulnerable populations

Dynamic changes of functional fitness, antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and immunological indicators within 1 year after discharge in Chinese health care workers with severe COVID-19: a cohort study

The relationship between markers of antenatal iron stores and birth outcomes differs by malaria prevention regimen—a prospective cohort study