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01-12-2021 | SARS-CoV-2 | Research article

Interventions to control nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Authors: Thi Mui Pham, Hannan Tahir, Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert, Bastiaan R. Van der Roest, Pauline Ellerbroek, Marc J. M. Bonten, Martin C. J. Bootsma, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

Emergence of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants requires more efficient control measures to limit nosocomial transmission and maintain healthcare capacities during pandemic waves. Yet the relative importance of different strategies is unknown.

Methods

We developed an agent-based model and compared the impact of personal protective equipment (PPE), screening of healthcare workers (HCWs), contact tracing of symptomatic HCWs and restricting HCWs from working in multiple units (HCW cohorting) on nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The model was fit on hospital data from the first wave in the Netherlands (February until August 2020) and assumed that HCWs used 90% effective PPE in COVID-19 wards and self-isolated at home for 7 days immediately upon symptom onset. Intervention effects on the effective reproduction number (R_E), HCW absenteeism and the proportion of infected individuals among tested individuals (positivity rate) were estimated for a more transmissible variant.

Results

Introduction of a variant with 56% higher transmissibility increased — all other variables kept constant — R_E from 0.4 to 0.65 (+ 63%) and nosocomial transmissions by 303%, mainly because of more transmissions caused by pre-symptomatic patients and HCWs. Compared to baseline, PPE use in all hospital wards (assuming 90% effectiveness) reduced R_E by 85% and absenteeism by 57%. Screening HCWs every 3 days with perfect test sensitivity reduced R_E by 67%, yielding a maximum test positivity rate of 5%. Screening HCWs every 3 or 7 days assuming time-varying test sensitivities reduced R_E by 9% and 3%, respectively. Contact tracing reduced R_E by at least 32% and achieved higher test positivity rates than screening interventions. HCW cohorting reduced R_E by 5%. Sensitivity analyses show that our findings do not change significantly for 70% PPE effectiveness. For low PPE effectiveness of 50%, PPE use in all wards is less effective than screening every 3 days with perfect sensitivity but still more effective than all other interventions.

Conclusions

In response to the emergence of more transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants, PPE use in all hospital wards might still be most effective in preventing nosocomial transmission. Regular screening and contact tracing of HCWs are also effective interventions but critically depend on the sensitivity of the diagnostic test used.

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Title: Interventions to control nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study
Authors: Thi Mui Pham
Hannan Tahir
Janneke H. H. M. van de Wijgert
Bastiaan R. Van der Roest
Pauline Ellerbroek
Marc J. M. Bonten
Martin C. J. Bootsma
Mirjam E. Kretzschmar
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: SARS-CoV-2
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-02060-y

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Interventions to control nosocomial transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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