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01-12-2021 | COVID-19 | Research article

Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis

Authors: Saskia Ricks, Emily A. Kendall, David W. Dowdy, Jilian A. Sacks, Samuel G. Schumacher, Nimalan Arinaminpathy

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

Testing plays a critical role in treatment and prevention responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Compared to nucleic acid tests (NATs), antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) can be more accessible, but typically have lower sensitivity and specificity. By quantifying these trade-offs, we aimed to inform decisions about when an Ag-RDT would offer greater public health value than reliance on NAT.

Methods

Following an expert consultation, we selected two use cases for analysis: rapid identification of people with COVID-19 amongst patients admitted with respiratory symptoms in a ‘hospital’ setting and early identification and isolation of people with mildly symptomatic COVID-19 in a ‘community’ setting. Using decision analysis, we evaluated the health system cost and health impact (deaths averted and infectious days isolated) of an Ag-RDT-led strategy, compared to a strategy based on NAT and clinical judgement. We adopted a broad range of values for ‘contextual’ parameters relevant to a range of settings, including the availability of NAT and the performance of clinical judgement. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis to all of these parameters.

Results

In a hospital setting, an Ag-RDT-led strategy would avert more deaths than a NAT-based strategy, and at lower cost per death averted, when the sensitivity of clinical judgement is less than 90%, and when NAT results are available in time to inform clinical decision-making for less than 85% of patients. The use of an Ag-RDT is robustly supported in community settings, where it would avert more transmission at lower cost than relying on NAT alone, under a wide range of assumptions.

Conclusions

Despite their imperfect sensitivity and specificity, Ag-RDTs have the potential to be simultaneously more impactful, and have a lower cost per death and infectious person-days averted, than current approaches to COVID-19 diagnostic testing.

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Title: Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis
Authors: Saskia Ricks
Emily A. Kendall
David W. Dowdy
Jilian A. Sacks
Samuel G. Schumacher
Nimalan Arinaminpathy
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: COVID-19
Published in: BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-021-01948-z

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Quantifying the potential value of antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests for COVID-19: a modelling analysis

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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