Top

BMC Public Health

Published in:

01-12-2021 | COVID-19 | Research

Spatial spillover and COVID-19 spread in the U.S.

Authors: John Ulimwengu, Aziza Kibonge

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

This research estimates the effects of vulnerability on the spread of COVID-19 cases across U.S. counties. Vulnerability factors (Socioeconomic Status, Minority Status & Language, Housing type, Transportation, Household Composition & Disability, Epidemiological Factors, Healthcare system Factors, High-risk Environments, and Population density) do not only influence an individual’s likelihood of getting infected but also influence the likelihood of his/her neighbors getting infected. Thus, spatial interactions occurring among individuals are likely to lead to spillover effects which may cause further virus transmission.

Methods

This research uses the COVID-19 community index (CCVI), which defines communities likely vulnerable to the impact of the pandemic and captures the multi-dimensionality of vulnerability. The spatial Durbin model was used to estimate the spillover effects of vulnerability to COVID-19 in U.S. counties, from May 1 to December 15, 2020.

Results

The findings confirm the existence of spatial spillover effects; with indirect effects (from neighboring counties) dominating the direct effects (from county-own vulnerability level). This not only validates social distancing as a strategy to contain the spread of the pandemic but also calls for comprehensive and coordinated approach to fight its effects. By keeping vulnerability factors constant but varying the number of reported infected cases every 2 weeks, we found that marginal effects of vulnerability vary significantly across counties. This might be the reflection of both the changing intensity of the pandemic itself but also the lack of consistency in the measures implemented to combat it.

Conclusion

Overall, the results indicate that high vulnerability in Minority, Epidemiological factors, Healthcare System Factors, and High-Risk Environments in each county and adjacent counties leads to an increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases.

Available only for authorised users

The Surgo Foundation collected data from the CDC, Centers for Medicare, & Medicaid Services (CMS), the Harvard Global Health Institute, PolicyMap, the U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. Census Bureau (USCB), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention (NCHSTP), Kaiser Health News, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), Census Economic Annual Surveys, the Vera institute for Justice, and the Association of Public Health Laboratories.

COVID Data Tracker [Internet]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2021 [cited 4 May 2021]. Available from: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home

Dasgupta S, Bowen VB, Leidner A, Fletcher K, Musial T, Rose C, et al. Association between social vulnerability and a County’s risk for becoming a COVID-19 hotspot—United States, June 1–July 25, 2020. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020;69(42):1535–41. https://doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm6942a3.CrossRef

Clark A, Jit M, Warren-Gash C, Guthrie B, Wang HH, Mercer SW, et al. Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study. Lancet Glob Health. 2020;8(8):e1003–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30264-3.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Raifman MA, Raifman JR. Disparities in the population at risk of severe illness from COVID-19 by race/ethnicity and income. Am J Prev Med. 2020;59(1):137–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.04.003.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Wiemers EE, Abrahams S, AlFakhri M, Hotz VJ, Schoeni RF, Seltzer JA. Disparities in vulnerability to severe complications from COVID-19 in the United States. National Bureau of Economic Research; 2020.CrossRef

Laurencin CT, McClinton A. The COVID-19 Pandemic: a Call to Action to Identify and Address Racial and Ethnic Disparities. J Racial Ethn Health Disparities. 2020;7(3):398–402. (https://doi.org/10.1007/s40615-020-00756-0).

Huang R, Zhu L, Xue L, Liu L, Yan X, Wang J, et al. Clinical findings of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 in Jiangsu province, China: a retrospective, multi-center study. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14(5):e0008280. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008280.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

Livingston E, Bucher K. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Italy. JAMA. 2020;323(14):1335.CrossRefPubMed

Nayak A, Islam SJ, Mehta A, Ko YA, Patel SA, Goyal A, et al. Impact of social vulnerability on COVID-19 incidence and outcomes in the United States. medRxiv. [Preprint] 2020. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7217093/. Accessed 9 Oct 2020.

10.

Kiaghadi A, Rifai HS, Liaw W. Assessing COVID-19 risk, vulnerability and infection prevalence in communities. PLoS One. 2020;15(10):e0241166. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241166.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

11.

Neelon B, Mutiso F, Mueller NT, Pearce JL, Benjamin-Neelon SE. Spatial and temporal trends in social vulnerability and COVID-19 incidence and death rates in the United States. PLoS One. 2021;16(3):e0248702. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248702.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

12.

Macharia PM, Joseph NK, Okiro EA. A vulnerability index for COVID-19: spatial analysis at the subnational level in Kenya. BMJ Glob Health. 2020;5(8):e003014. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-003014.CrossRefPubMed

13.

Nicodemo C, Barzin S, Lasserson D, Moscone F, Redding S, Shaikh M. Measuring geographical disparities in England at the time of COVID-19: results using a composite indicator of population vulnerability. BMJ Open. 2020;10(9):e039749. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039749.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

14.

McLaren J. Racial disparity in COVID-19 deaths: seeking economic roots with census data. National Bureau of Economic Research; 2020.CrossRef

15.

Benitez J, Courtemanche C, Yelowitz A. Racial and ethnic disparities in Covid-19: evidence from six large cities. J Econ Race Policy. 2020 Dec;3(4):243–61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41996-020-00068-9.CrossRefPubMed

16.

Knittel CR, Ozaltun B. What does and does not correlate with COVID-19 death rates. National Bureau of Economic Research; 2020.CrossRef

17.

Desmet K, Wacziarg R. JUE insight: understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States. J Urban Econ. 2021:103332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2021.103332.

18.

Balcan D, Gonçalves B, Hu H, Ramasco J, Colizza V, Vespignani A. Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal epidemic and mobility computational model. J Comput Sci. 2010;1(3):132–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2010.07.002.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

19.

Sun F, Matthews SA, Yang TC, Hu MH. A spatial analysis of the COVID-19 period prevalence in US counties through June 28, 2020: where geography matters? Ann Epidemiol. 2020;52:54–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.07.014.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

20.

Karaye IM, Horney JA. The impact of social vulnerability on COVID-19 in the US: an analysis of spatially varying relationships. Am J Prev Med. 2020;59(3):317–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2020.06.006.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

21.

Khazanchi R, Beiter ER, Gondi S, Beckman AL, Bilinski A, Ganguli I. County-level association of social vulnerability with COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA. J Gen Intern Med. 2020;35(9):2784–7. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11606-020-05882-3.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

22.

Anselin L, Florax RJ, Rey SJ. Econometrics for spatial models: recent advances. Adv Spat Econometrics. 2004:1–25. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05617-2_1.

23.

Lewnard JA, Lo NC. Scientific and ethical basis for social-distancing interventions against COVID-19. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;20(6):631–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30190-0.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

24.

Social Media at CDC [online]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2021. [Accessed 7 August 2021]. Available from https://www.cdc.gov/socialmedia/syndication/405380/403327.html.

25.

COVID-19 and Your Health [Internet]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 2021 [cited 8 March 2021]. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html

26.

Qu X, Lee LF. LM tests for spatial correlation in spatial models with limited dependent variables. Reg Sci Urban Econ. 2012;42(3):430–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2011.11.001.CrossRef

27.

Anselin L. Spatial econometrics: methods and models. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands; 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7799-1.CrossRef

28.

LeSage JP, Fischer MM. Spatial growth regressions: model specification, estimation and interpretation. Spat Econ Anal. 2008;3(3):275–304. https://doi.org/10.1080/17421770802353758.CrossRef

29.

LeSage JP, Kelley Pace R, Lam N, Campanella R, Liu X. New Orleans business recovery in the aftermath of hurricane Katrina. J R Stat Soc A (Statistics in Society). 2011 Oct;174(4):1007–27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.00712.x.CrossRef

30.

CDC/ATSDR's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) [Internet]. Atsdr.cdc.gov. 2021 [cited 5 May 2021]. Available from: https://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/placeandhealth/svi/index.html

31.

Bringing Greater Precision to the COVID-19 Response [Internet]. Precisionforcovid.org. 2021 [cited 9 September 2020]. Available from: https://precisionforcovid.org/ccvi

32.

USDA ERS - The Meatpacking Industry in Rural America During the COVID-19 Pandemic [Internet]. Ers.usda.gov. 2021 [cited 5 March 2021]. Available from: https://www.ers.usda.gov/covid-19/rural-america/meatpacking-industry/

33.

Ssentongo P, Ssentongo AE, Heilbrunn ES, Ba DM, Chinchilli VM. Association of cardiovascular disease and 10 other pre-existing comorbidities with COVID-19 mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS One. 2020;15(8):e0238215. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0238215.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral

34.

Barnett ML, Mehrotra A, Landon BE. Covid-19 and the Upcoming Financial Crisis in Health Care. NEJM Catalyst Innovations Care Delivery. 2020;1(2):1–6. (https://catalyst.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/CAT.20.0153).

35.

Horwitz L, Jones SA, Cerfolio RJ, Francois F, Greco J, Rudy B, et al. Trends in COVID-19 Risk-Adjusted Mortality Rates. J Hosp Med. 2021;16(2):90–2. (https://doi.org/10.12788/jhm.3552).

36.

Bouba-Olga, O. La densité favorise-t-elle l’épidémie ? (épisode 26) | [Internet]. Blogs.univ-poitiers.fr. 2020 [cited 3 November 2020]. Available from: https://blogs.univpoitiers.fr/o-bouba-olga/2020/04/29/la-densite-favorise-t-elle-lepidemie-episode-26/

37.

Babbitt D, Garland P, Johnson O. Lived population density and the spread of COVID-19. arXiv preprint arXiv. 2005;01167:2020.

38.

Kadi N, Khelfaoui M. Population density, a factor in the spread of COVID-19 in Algeria: statistic study. Bull Natl Res Centre. 2020;44(1):1–7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s42269-020-00393-x.CrossRef

39.

Hsu J. Population density does not doom cities to pandemic dangers. Sci Am. 2020. Available from: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/population-density-does-not-doom-cities-to-pandemic-dangers/. Accessed 6 Jan 2021.

40.

Pisano GP, Sadun R, Zanini M. Lessons from Italy’s response to coronavirus. Harv Bus Rev. 2020. Available from: https://hbr.org/2020/03/lessons-from-italys-response-to-coronavirus. Accessed 2 Nov 2020.

41.

R. Allen J, von Hippel K. Where is the global coalition to fight the coronavirus? [Internet]. Brookings. 2021; [cited 4 May 2021]. Available from: https://www.brookings.edu/president/where-is-the-global-coalition-to-fight-the-coronavirus/.

Title: Spatial spillover and COVID-19 spread in the U.S.
Authors: John Ulimwengu
Aziza Kibonge
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: COVID-19
Published in: BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-11809-2

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Spatial spillover and COVID-19 spread in the U.S.

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Please log in to get access to this content

Other articles of this Issue 1/2021

Training may enhance early childhood educators’ self-efficacy to lead physical activity in childcare

Smoking is associated with worse outcomes of COVID-19 particularly among younger adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Psychological impact of the state of emergency over COVID-19 for non-permanent workers: a Nationwide follow-up study in Japan

Current practices of waste management in teaching hospitals and presence of incinerators in densely populated areas

Clustering of asthma and related comorbidities and their association with maternal health during pregnancy: evidence from an Australian birth cohort

An assessment of parents’ knowledge and awareness regarding paracetamol use in children: a cross-sectional study from Palestine