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Open Access 01-12-2021 | SARS-CoV-2 | Research article

Occupancy modeling and resampling overcomes low test sensitivity to produce accurate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates

Authors: Jamie S. Sanderlin, Jessie D. Golding, Taylor Wilcox, Daniel H. Mason, Kevin S. McKelvey, Dean E. Pearson, Michael K. Schwartz

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

We evaluated whether occupancy modeling, an approach developed for detecting rare wildlife species, could overcome inherent accuracy limitations associated with rapid disease tests to generate fast, accurate, and affordable SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates. Occupancy modeling uses repeated sampling to estimate probability of false negative results, like those linked to rapid tests, for generating unbiased prevalence estimates.

Methods

We developed a simulation study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence using rapid, low-sensitivity, low-cost tests and slower, high-sensitivity, higher cost tests across a range of disease prevalence and sampling strategies.

Results

Occupancy modeling overcame the low sensitivity of rapid tests to generate prevalence estimates comparable to more accurate, slower tests. Moreover, minimal repeated sampling was required to offset low test sensitivity at low disease prevalence (0.1%), when rapid testing is most critical for informing disease management.

Conclusions

Occupancy modeling enables the use of rapid tests to provide accurate, affordable, real-time estimates of the prevalence of emerging infectious diseases like SARS-CoV-2.

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Title: Occupancy modeling and resampling overcomes low test sensitivity to produce accurate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates
Authors: Jamie S. Sanderlin
Jessie D. Golding
Taylor Wilcox
Daniel H. Mason
Kevin S. McKelvey
Dean E. Pearson
Michael K. Schwartz
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: SARS-CoV-2
Published in: BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2021
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-021-10609-y

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Occupancy modeling and resampling overcomes low test sensitivity to produce accurate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

At a glance: The STEP trials

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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