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Breast Cancer Research
Published in: Breast Cancer Research 3/2014

Open Access 01-06-2014 | Letter

Adjusting the incidence increase when screening for statistical lead time will always give estimates of overdiagnosis close to zero

Author: Per-Henrik Zahl

Published in: Breast Cancer Research | Issue 3/2014

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Excerpt

By analysing a theoretical cohort, Duffy and Parmar [1] find 0% overdiagnosis when screening for breast cancer in the UK. The fundamental assumption in their calculation is that the average lead time is 40 months, and this estimate relies on a method proposed by Walter and Day [2] for calculating lead time. …
Literature
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Duffy SW, Parmar D: Overdiagnosis in breast cancer: the importance of length of observation period and lead-time. Breast Cancer Res. 2013, 15: R41-10.1186/bcr3427.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
2.
Walter SD, Day NE: Simplified models of screening for chronic disease: estimation procedures from mass screening programmes. Biometrics. 1984, 40: 1-14. 10.2307/2530739.CrossRefPubMed
3.
Zahl P-H, Jørgensen KJ, Gøtzsche PC: Overestimated lead-time in cancer screening has led to substantial under-estimating of overdiagnosis. Br J Cancer. 2013, 109: 2014-2019. 10.1038/bjc.2013.427.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
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Woodman CB, Threlfall AG, Boggis CR, Prior P: Is the three year breast screening interval too long? Occurrence of interval cancers in NHS breast screening programme’s north western region. BMJ. 1995, 310: 224-226. 10.1136/bmj.310.6974.224.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
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Olsen AH, Agbaje OF, Myles JP, Lynge E, Duffy SW: Overdiagnosis, sojourn time and sensitivity in the Copenhagen Mammography Screening Programme. Breast J. 2006, 12: 338-342. 10.1111/j.1075-122X.2006.00272.x.CrossRefPubMed
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Duffy SW, Agbaje O, Tabar L, Vitak B, Bjurstam N, Björneld L, Myles JP, Warwick J: Estimates of overdiagnosis from two trials of mammographic screening for breast cancer. Breast Cancer Res. 2005, 7: 258-265. 10.1186/bcr1354.CrossRefPubMedPubMedCentral
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Paci E, Duffy SW: Modelling the analysis of breast cancer screening programmes: sensitivity, lead time and predictive value in the Florence District Programme (1975–1986). Int J Epidemiol. 1991, 20: 852-858. 10.1093/ije/20.4.852.CrossRefPubMed
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Weedon-Fekjaer H, Lindqvist BH, Vatten LJ, Aalen OO, Tretli S: Estimating mean sojourn time and screening sensitivity using questionnaire data on time since previous screening. J Med Screen. 2008, 15: 83-90. 10.1258/jms.2008.007071.CrossRefPubMed
Metadata
Title
Adjusting the incidence increase when screening for statistical lead time will always give estimates of overdiagnosis close to zero
Author
Per-Henrik Zahl
Publication date
01-06-2014
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Breast Cancer Research / Issue 3/2014
Electronic ISSN: 1465-542X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/bcr3671

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