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Emerging Themes in Epidemiology
Published in: Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 1/2005

Open Access 01-12-2005 | Methodology

Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001

Authors: Phillip Zucs, Udo Buchholz, Walter Haas, Helmut Uphoff

Published in: Emerging Themes in Epidemiology | Issue 1/2005

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Abstract

Influenza-associated excess mortality is widely used to assess the severity of influenza epidemics. In Germany, however, it is not yet established as a routine component of influenza surveillance. We therefore applied a simple method based on the annual distribution of monthly relative mortality (relative mortality distribution method, RMDM) to a time-series of German monthly all-cause mortality data from 1985–2001 to estimate influenza-associated excess mortality. Results were compared to those obtained by cyclical regression.
Both methods distinguished stronger from milder influenza seasons, but RMDM gave the better fit (R2 = 0.80). For the years after reunification, i.e. 1990/91 through 2000/01, RMDM yielded an average of 6900 (conservative estimate) to13600 influenza-asssociated excess deaths per season (crude estimate). The most severe epidemics occurred during subtype A/H3N2 seasons. While German all-cause mortality declined over the study period, the number of excess deaths displayed an upward trend, coinciding with an increase of the proportion of the elderly population.
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Metadata
Title
Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001
Authors
Phillip Zucs
Udo Buchholz
Walter Haas
Helmut Uphoff
Publication date
01-12-2005
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Emerging Themes in Epidemiology / Issue 1/2005
Electronic ISSN: 1742-7622
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1742-7622-2-6

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