Skip to main content
Key Specialties
Cardiology Diabetology Endocrinology Gastroenterology Geriatrics and Gerontology Gynecology and Obstetrics Hematology Infectious Disease Internal Medicine Nephrology Neurology Oncology Pediatrics Respiratory Medicine Rheumatology Surgery
Congress Coverage
2024 ACC Congress 2023 ESMO Congress 2023 EASD Congress 2023 ERS Congress 2023 ESC Congress
Clinical Collections
Advances in Alzheimer’s

At a glance: The STEP trials

A round-up of the STEP phase 3 clinical trials evaluating semaglutide for weight loss in people with overweight or obesity.
ADVANCED SEARCH
Log in
Top
BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2012

Open Access 01-12-2012 | Review

Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings

Authors: Gerardo Chowell, Hiroshi Nishiura, Cécile Viboud

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2012

Login to get access

Abstract

We discuss models for rapidly disseminating infectious diseases during mass gatherings (MGs), using influenza as a case study. Recent innovations in modeling and forecasting influenza transmission dynamics at local, regional, and global scales have made influenza a particularly attractive model scenario for MG. We discuss the behavioral, medical, and population factors for modeling MG disease transmission, review existing model formulations, and highlight key data and modeling gaps related to modeling MG disease transmission. We argue that the proposed improvements will help integrate infectious-disease models in MG health contingency plans in the near future, echoing modeling efforts that have helped shape influenza pandemic preparedness plans in recent years.
Appendix
Available only for authorised users
Literature
1.
World Health Organization (WHO): Key considerations. Communicable disease alert and response for mass gatherings. 2008, Geneva, Switzerland: WHO
2.
Abubakar I, Gautret P, Brunette GW, Blumberg L, Johnson D, Poumerol G, Memish ZA, Barbeschi M, Khan AS: Global perspectives for prevention of infectious diseases associated with mass gatherings. Lancet Infect Dis. 12: 66-74.
3.
Hatchett RJ, Mecher CE, Lipsitch M: Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007, 104: 7582-7587. 10.1073/pnas.0610941104.PubMedPubMedCentral
4.
Bootsma MC, Ferguson NM: The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007, 104: 7588-7593. 10.1073/pnas.0611071104.PubMedPubMedCentral
5.
White LF, Pagano M: Transmissibility of the influenza virus in the 1918 pandemic. PLoS ONE. 2008, 3: e1498-10.1371/journal.pone.0001498.PubMedPubMedCentral
6.
Mangili A, Gendreau MA: Transmission of infectious diseases during commercial air travel. Lancet. 2005, 365: 989-996. 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)71089-8.PubMed
7.
Baker MG, Thornley CN, Mills C, Roberts S, Perera S, Peters J, Kelso A, Barr I, Wilson N: Transmission of pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza on passenger aircraft: retrospective cohort study. BMJ. 2010, 340: c2424-10.1136/bmj.c2424.PubMedPubMedCentral
8.
Gundlapalli AV, Rubin MA, Samore MH, Lopansri B, Lahey T, McGuire HL, Winthrop KL, Dunn JJ, Willick SE, Vosters RL, Waeckerle JE, Carroll KC, Gwaltney JM, Hayden FG, Elstad MR, Sande MA: Influenza, Winter Olympiad, 2002. Emerg Infect Dis. 2006, 12: 144-146. 10.3201/eid1201.050645.PubMedPubMedCentral
9.
Chowell G, Echevarría-Zuno S, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Tamerius J, Miller MA, Borja-Aburto VH: Characterizing the epidemiology of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico. PloS Medicine. 2011, 8: e1000436-10.1371/journal.pmed.1000436.PubMedPubMedCentral
10.
Jentes ES, Davis XM, Macdonald S, Snyman PJ, Nelson H, Quarry D, Lai I, van Vliet EW, Balaban V, Marano C, Mues K, Kozarsky P, Marano N: Health risks and travel preparation among foreign visitors and expatriates during the 2008 Beijing Olympic and Paralympic Games. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2010, 82: 466-472. 10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0660.PubMedPubMedCentral
11.
Gutierrez I, Litzroth A, Hammadi S, Van Oyen H, Gerard C, Robesyn E, Bots J, Faidherbe MT, Wuillaume F: Community transmission of influenza A (H1N1)v virus at a rock festival in Belgium, 2-5 July 2009. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14.
12.
Khan K, McNabb SJ, Memish ZA, Eckhardt R, Hu W, Kossowsky D, Sears J, Arino J, Johansson A, Barbeschi M, McCloskey B, Henry B, Cetron M, Brownstein JS: Infectious disease surveillance and modelling across geographic frontiers and scientific specialties. Lancet Infect Dis. 2012, 12: 222-230. 10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70313-9.PubMed
13.
Steffens I, Martin R, Lopalco P: Spotlight on measles 2010: measles elimination in Europe - a new commitment to meet the goal by 2015. Euro Surveill. 15.
14.
Franke F, Coulon L, Renaudat C, Euillot B, Kessalis N, Malfait P: Epidemiological surveillance implemented in southeast France during the 2006 Olympic Winter Games. Euro Surveill. 2006, 11: E060907-060906.PubMed
15.
16.
Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, Getz WM: Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature. 2005, 438: 355-359. 10.1038/nature04153.PubMed
17.
Glasser J, Feng Z, Moylan A, Del Valle S, Castillo-Chavez C: Mixing in age-structured population models of infectious diseases. Math Biosci. 2012, 235: 1-7. 10.1016/j.mbs.2011.10.001.PubMed
18.
Balcan D, Hu H, Goncalves B, Bajardi P, Poletto C, Ramasco JJ, Paolotti D, Perra N, Tizzoni M, Van den Broeck W, Colizza V, Vespignani A: Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility. BMC Med. 2009, 7: 45-10.1186/1741-7015-7-45.PubMedPubMedCentral
19.
Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Fraser C, Cajka JC, Cooley PC, Burke DS: Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature. 2006, 442: 448-452. 10.1038/nature04795.PubMed
20.
Ferguson NM, Cummings DA, Cauchemez S, Fraser C, Riley S, Meeyai A, Iamsirithaworn S, Burke DS: Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature. 2005, 437: 209-214. 10.1038/nature04017.PubMed
21.
Longini IM, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y: Containing pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am J Epidemiol. 2004, 159: 623-633. 10.1093/aje/kwh092.PubMed
22.
Chao DL, Halloran ME, Obenchain VJ, Longini IM: FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model. PLoS Comput Biol. 6: e1000656.
23.
Anderson RM, May RM: Infectious diseases of humans. 1991, Oxford: Oxford University Press
24.
Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J: Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis and interpretation. 2000, Wiley
25.
Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G: Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Euro Surveill. 2009, 14.
26.
Chowell G, Miller MA, Viboud C: Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect. 2007, 1-13.
27.
Chowell G, Miller MA, Viboud C: Seasonal influenza in the United States, France, and Australia: transmission and prospects for control. Epidemiol Infect. 2008, 136: 852-864.PubMed
28.
Mills CE, Robins JM, Lipsitch M: Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature. 2004, 432: 904-906. 10.1038/nature03063.PubMed
29.
Andreasen V, Viboud C, Simonsen L: Epidemiologic characterization of the 1918 influenza pandemic summer wave in Copenhagen: implications for pandemic control strategies. J Infect Dis. 2008, 197: 270-278. 10.1086/524065.PubMedPubMedCentral
30.
Chowell G, Ammon CE, Hengartner NW, Hyman JM: Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions. J Theor Biol. 2006, 241: 193-204. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.11.026.PubMed
31.
Nishiura H: Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918-19. Theor Biol Med Model. 2007, 4: 20-10.1186/1742-4682-4-20.PubMedPubMedCentral
32.
Chowell G, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Acuna-Soto R: Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations. J Infect Dis. 2010, 202: 567-575. 10.1086/654897.PubMedPubMedCentral
33.
Trotter CL, Gay NJ, Edmunds WJ: Dynamic models of meningococcal carriage, disease, and the impact of serogroup C conjugate vaccination. Am J Epidemiol. 2005, 162: 89-100. 10.1093/aje/kwi160.PubMed
34.
Fraser C, Riley S, Anderson RM, Ferguson NM: Factors that make an infectious disease outbreak controllable. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2004, 101: 6146-6151. 10.1073/pnas.0307506101.PubMedPubMedCentral
35.
Lai KM, Bottomley C, McNerney R: Propagation of respiratory aerosols by the vuvuzela. PLoS One. 2011, 6: e20086-10.1371/journal.pone.0020086.PubMedPubMedCentral
36.
Cattuto C, Van den Broeck W, Barrat A, Colizza V, Pinton JF, Vespignani A: Dynamics of person-to-person interactions from distributed RFID sensor networks. PLoS One. 2010, 5: e11596-10.1371/journal.pone.0011596.PubMedPubMedCentral
37.
Stehlé J, Voirin N, Barrat A, Cattuto C, Isella L, Pinton JF, Quaggiotto M, Van den Broeck W, Régis C, Lina B, Vanhems P: High-resolution measurements of face-to-face contact patterns in a primary school. PLoS One. 2011, 6: e23176-10.1371/journal.pone.0023176.PubMedPubMedCentral
38.
Cauchemez S, Bhattarai A, Marchbanks TL, Fagan RP, Ostroff S, Ferguson NM, Swerdlow D: Role of social networks in shaping disease transmission during a community outbreak of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011, 108: 2825-2830. 10.1073/pnas.1008895108.PubMedPubMedCentral
39.
Pitzer VE, Burgner D, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Andreasen V, Steiner CA, Lipsitch M: Modelling seasonal variations in the age and incidence of Kawasaki disease to explore possible infectious aetiologies. Proc Biol Sci. 2012, 279: 2736-43. 10.1098/rspb.2011.2464.PubMedPubMedCentral
40.
Pitzer VE, Lipsitch M: Exploring the relationship between incidence and the average age of infection during seasonal epidemics. J Theor Biol. 2009, 260: 175-185. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.06.008.PubMedPubMedCentral
41.
Babad HR, Nokes DJ, Gay NJ, Miller E, Morgan-Capner P, Anderson RM: Predicting the impact of measles vaccination in England and Wales: model validation and analysis of policy options. Epidemiol Infect. 1995, 114: 319-344. 10.1017/S0950268800057976.PubMedPubMedCentral
42.
Stehlé J, Voirin N, Barrat A, Cattuto C, Colizza V, Isella L, Régis C, Pinton JF, Khanafer N, Van den Broeck W, Vanhems P: Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees. BMC Med. 2011, 9: 87-10.1186/1741-7015-9-87.PubMedPubMedCentral
43.
Blower S, Go MH: The importance of including dynamic social networks when modeling epidemics of airborne infections: does increasing complexity increase accuracy?. BMC Med. 2011, 9: 88-10.1186/1741-7015-9-88.PubMedPubMedCentral
44.
Johansson A, Batty M, Hayashi K, Al Bar O, Marcozzi D, Memish ZA: Crowd and environmental management during mass gatherings. Lancet Infect Dis. 12: 150-156.
45.
Watson R, Yip P: How many were there when it mattered?. Significance. 2011, 8: 104-107.
46.
Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, Beutels P, Auranen K, Mikolajczyk R, Massari M, Salmaso S, Tomba GS, Wallinga J, Heijne J, Sadkowska-Todys M, Rosinska M, Edmunds WJ: Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008, 5: e74-10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074.PubMedPubMedCentral
47.
Del Valle SY, Hyman JM, Hethcote HW, Eubank SG: Mixing patterns between age groups in social networks. Social Networks. 2007, 29: 539-554. 10.1016/j.socnet.2007.04.005.
48.
Presanis AM, De Angelis D, Hagy A, Reed C, Riley S, Cooper BS, Finelli L, Biedrzycki P, Lipsitch M: The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a bayesian analysis. PLoS Med. 2009, 6: e1000207-10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207.PubMedPubMedCentral
49.
Nishiura H: Case fatality ratio of pandemic influenza. Lancet Infect Dis. 2010, 10: 443-444. 10.1016/S1473-3099(10)70120-1.PubMed
50.
Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, Wachtel C, Tegnell A, Saour G, Duncan B, Nicoll A: Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic. Lancet Infect Dis. 2009, 9: 473-481. 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70176-8.PubMed
51.
Charu V, Chowell G, Palacio Mejia LS, Echevarría-Zuno S, Borja-Aburto VH, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Viboud C: Mortality burden of the A/H1N1 pandemic in Mexico: a comparison of deaths and years of life lost to seasonal influenza. Clin Infect Dis. 2011, 53: 985-93. 10.1093/cid/cir644.PubMedPubMedCentral
52.
Hancock K, Veguilla V, Lu X, Zhong W, Butler EN, Sun H, Liu F, Dong L, DeVos JR, Gargiullo PM: Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. N Engl J Med. 2009, 361: 1945-1952. 10.1056/NEJMoa0906453.PubMed
53.
Chowell G, Bertozzi SM, Colchero MA, Lopez-Gatell H, Alpuche-Aranda C, Hernandez M, Miller MA: Severe respiratory disease concurrent with the circulation of H1N1 influenza. N Engl J Med. 2009, 361: 674-679. 10.1056/NEJMoa0904023.PubMed
54.
Fisman DN, Savage R, Gubbay J, Achonu C, Akwar H, Farrell DJ, Crowcroft NS, Jackson P: Older age and a reduced likelihood of 2009 H1N1 virus infection. N Engl J Med. 2009, 361: 2000-2001. 10.1056/NEJMc0907256.PubMed
55.
Cohen C, Simonsen L, Kang JW, Miller M, McAnerney J, Blumberg L, Schoub B, Madhi SA, Viboud C: Elevated influenza-related excess mortality in South African elderly individuals, 1998-2005. Clin Infect Dis. 2010, 51: 1362-1369. 10.1086/657314.PubMedPubMedCentral
56.
Steel J, Staeheli P, Mubareka S, Garcia-Sastre A, Palese P, Lowen AC: Transmission of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus and impact of prior exposure to seasonal strains or interferon treatment. J Virol. 2011, 84: 21-26.
57.
Lowen AC, Mubareka S, Steel J, Palese P: Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog. 2007, 3: 1470-1476.PubMed
58.
Mubareka S, Lowen AC, Steel J, Coates AL, Garcia-Sastre A, Palese P: Transmission of influenza virus via aerosols and fomites in the guinea pig model. J Infect Dis. 2009, 199: 858-865. 10.1086/597073.PubMedPubMedCentral
59.
60.
Alonso WJ, Viboud C, Simonsen L, Hirano EW, Daufenbach LZ, Miller MA: Seasonality of influenza in Brazil: a traveling wave from the Amazon to the subtropics. Am J Epidemiol. 2007, 165: 1434-1442. 10.1093/aje/kwm012.PubMed
61.
Russell CA, Jones TC, Barr IG, Cox NJ, Garten RJ, Gregory V, Gust ID, Hampson AW, Hay AJ, Hurt AC, de Jong JC, Kelso A, Klimov AI, Kageyama T, Komadina N, Lapedes AS, Lin YP, Mosterin A, Obuchi M, Odagiri T, Osterhaus AD, Rimmelzwaan GF, Shaw MW, Skepner E, Stohr K, Tashiro M, Fouchier RA, Smith DJ: The global circulation of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) viruses. Science. 2008, 320: 340-346. 10.1126/science.1154137.PubMed
62.
Blyth CC, Foo H, van Hal SJ, Hurt AC, Barr IG, McPhie K, Armstrong PK, Rawlinson WD, Sheppeard V, Conaty S, Staff M, Dwyer DE: Influenza outbreaks during World Youth Day 2008 mass gathering. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010, 16: 809-815. 10.3201/eid1605.091136.PubMedPubMedCentral
63.
Castillo-Chavez C, Castillo-Garsow CW, Yakubu AA: MSJAMA. Mathematical models of isolation and quarantine. JAMA. 2003, 290: 2876-2877. 10.1001/jama.290.21.2876.PubMed
64.
Kajita E, Okano JT, Bodine EN, Layne SP, Blower S: Modelling an outbreak of an emerging pathogen. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2007, 5: 700-709. 10.1038/nrmicro1660.PubMed
65.
Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C: Worst-case scenarios and epidemics. Bioterrorism: Mathematical and Modeling Approaches in Homeland Security. Edited by: C.Castillo-Chavez HTBa. 2003, SIAM's series Frontiers in Applied Mathematics
66.
Macal CM, North MJ: Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation. Journal of Simulation. 2010, 4: 151-162. 10.1057/jos.2010.3.
67.
Eubank S, Guclu H, Kumar VS, Marathe MV, Srinivasan A, Toroczkai Z, Wang N: Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks. Nature. 2004, 429: 180-184. 10.1038/nature02541.PubMed
68.
Longini IM, Halloran ME, Nizam A, Yang Y, Xu S, Burke DS, Cummings DA, Epstein JM: Containing a large bioterrorist smallpox attack: a computer simulation approach. Int J Infect Dis. 2007, 11: 98-108. 10.1016/j.ijid.2006.03.002.PubMed
69.
Halloran ME, Longini IM, Nizam A, Yang Y: Containing bioterrorist smallpox. Science. 2002, 298: 1428-1432. 10.1126/science.1074674.PubMed
70.
Ciofi degli Atti ML, Merler S, Rizzo C, Ajelli M, Massari M, Manfredi P, Furlanello C, Scalia Tomba G, Iannelli M: Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios. PLoS One. 2008, 3 (3): e1790-10.1371/journal.pone.0001790.PubMedPubMedCentral
71.
Carrat F, Pelat C, Levy-Bruhl D, Bonmarin I, Lapidus N: Planning for the next influenza H1N1 season: a modelling study. Bmc Infectious Diseases. 2010, 10.
72.
Merler S, Ajelli M, Rizzo C: Age-prioritized use of antivirals during an influenza pandemic. BMC Infect Dis. 2009, 9: 117-10.1186/1471-2334-9-117.PubMedPubMedCentral
73.
Chowell G, Hyman JM, Eubank S, Castillo-Chavez C: Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2003, 68: 066102.PubMed
74.
Watts DJ, Strogatz SH: Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Nature. 1998, 393: 440-442. 10.1038/30918.PubMed
75.
Pastor-Satorras R, Vespignani A: Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. Phys Rev Lett. 2001, 86: 3200-3203. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.3200.PubMed
76.
Viboud C, Bjornstad ON, Smith DL, Simonsen L, Miller MA, Grenfell BT: Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza. Science. 2006, 312: 447-451. 10.1126/science.1125237.PubMed
77.
Merler S, Ajelli M: The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza. Proc Biol Sci. 277: 557-565.
78.
Eggo RM, Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM: Spatial dynamics of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England, Wales and the United States. J R Soc Interface. 8: 233-243.
79.
Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) on a Peruvian Navy ship - June-July 2009. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2010, 59: 162-165.
80.
Moser MR, Bender TR, Margolis HS, Noble GR, Kendal AP, Ritter DG: An outbreak of influenza aboard a commercial airliner. Am J Epidemiol. 1979, 110: 1-6.PubMed
81.
Riley EC, Murphy G, Riley RL: Airborne spread of measles in a suburban elementary school. Am J Epidemiol. 1978, 107: 421-432.PubMed
82.
Foxwell AR, Roberts L, Lokuge K, Kelly PM: Transmission of influenza on international flights, may 2009. Emerg Infect Dis. 2011, 17: 1188-1194. 10.3201/eid1707.101135.PubMedPubMedCentral
83.
Nardell EA: Environmental control of tuberculosis. Med Clin North Am. 1993, 77: 1315-1334.PubMed
84.
Ko G, Thompson KM, Nardell EA: Estimation of tuberculosis risk on a commercial airliner. Risk Anal. 2004, 24: 379-388. 10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00439.x.PubMed
85.
Chen SC, Liao CM, Li SS, You SH: A probabilistic transmission model to assess infection risk from Mycobacterium tuberculosis in commercial passenger trains. Risk Anal. 2011, 31: 930-939. 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01552.x.PubMed
86.
Wagner BG, Coburn BJ, Blower S: Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1). BMC Med. 2009, 7: 81-10.1186/1741-7015-7-81.PubMedPubMedCentral
87.
Liao CM, Chang CF, Liang HM: A probabilistic transmission dynamic model to assess indoor airborne infection risks. Risk Anal. 2005, 25: 1097-1107. 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00663.x.PubMed
88.
Rudnick SN, Milton DK: Risk of indoor airborne infection transmission estimated from carbon dioxide concentration. Indoor Air. 2003, 13: 237-245. 10.1034/j.1600-0668.2003.00189.x.PubMed
89.
Riley RL, Mills CC, O'Grady F, Sultan LU, Wittstadt F, Shivpuri DN: Infectiousness of air from a tuberculosis ward. Ultraviolet irradiation of infected air: comparative infectiousness of different patients. Am Rev Respir Dis. 1962, 85: 511-525.PubMed
90.
Wells WF, Ratcliffe HL, Grumb C: On the mechanics of droplet nuclei infection; quantitative experimental air-borne tuberculosis in rabbits. Am J Hyg. 1948, 47: 11-28.PubMed
91.
Fabian P, McDevitt JJ, DeHaan WH, Fung RO, Cowling BJ, Chan KH, Leung GM, Milton DK: Influenza virus in human exhaled breath: an observational study. PLoS One. 2008, 3: e2691-10.1371/journal.pone.0002691.PubMedPubMedCentral
92.
Haas CN, Rose JB, Gerba CP: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment. 1999, New York: John Wiley
93.
Crawford-Brown DJ: Mathematical Methods of Environmental Risk Modelling. 2001, Kluwer Academic Publishers
94.
Teunis PF, Brienen N, Kretzschmar ME: High infectivity and pathogenicity of influenza A virus via aerosol and droplet transmission. Epidemics. 2010, 2: 215-222. 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.10.001.PubMed
95.
Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Vespignani A: The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2006, 103: 2015-2020. 10.1073/pnas.0510525103.PubMedPubMedCentral
96.
Khan K, Arino J, Hu W, Raposo P, Sears J, Calderon F, Heidebrecht C, Macdonald M, Liauw J, Chan A, Gardam M: Spread of a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus via global airline transportation. N Engl J Med. 2009, 361: 212-214. 10.1056/NEJMc0904559.PubMed
97.
Flahault A, Vergu E, Boelle PY: Potential for a global dynamic of Influenza A (H1N1). BMC Infect Dis. 2009, 9: 129-10.1186/1471-2334-9-129.PubMedPubMedCentral
98.
Kenah E, Chao DL, Matrajt L, Halloran ME, Longini IM: The global transmission and control of influenza. PLoS One. 2011, 6: e19515-10.1371/journal.pone.0019515.PubMedPubMedCentral
99.
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM: Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza?. Nat Med. 2006, 12 (5): 497-499. 10.1038/nm0506-497.PubMed
100.
Cooper BS, Pitman RJ, Edmunds WJ, Gay NJ: Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza. PLoS Med. 2006, 3: e212-10.1371/journal.pmed.0030212.PubMedPubMedCentral
101.
Scalia Tomba G, Wallinga J: A simple explanation for the low impact of border control as a countermeasure to the spread of an infectious disease. Math Biosci. 2008, 214: 70-72. 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.02.009.PubMed
102.
Colizza V, Barrat A, Barthelemy M, Valleron AJ, Vespignani A: Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: baseline case and containment interventions. PLoS Med. 2007, 4: e13-10.1371/journal.pmed.0040013.PubMedPubMedCentral
103.
Albert R, Barabasi AL: Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Rev Mod Phy. 2002, 74: 47-97. 10.1103/RevModPhys.74.47.
104.
Newman MEJ: The structure and function of networks. Comp Phys Comm. 2002, 147: 40-45. 10.1016/S0010-4655(02)00201-1.
105.
Shi P, Keskinocak P, Swann JL, Lee BY: The impact of mass gatherings and holiday traveling on the course of an influenza pandemic: a computational model. BMC Public Health. 2010, 10: 778-10.1186/1471-2458-10-778.PubMedPubMedCentral
106.
Germann TC, Kadau K, Longini IM, Macken CA: Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2006, 103: 5935-5940. 10.1073/pnas.0601266103.PubMedPubMedCentral
107.
Longini IM, Nizam A, Xu S, Ungchusak K, Hanshaoworakul W, Cummings DA, Halloran ME: Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science. 2005, 309: 1083-1087. 10.1126/science.1115717.PubMed
108.
Lipsitch M, Riley S, Cauchemez S, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM: Managing and reducing uncertainty in an emerging influenza pandemic. N Engl J Med. 2009, 361: 112-115. 10.1056/NEJMp0904380.PubMedPubMedCentral
109.
Wu JT, Cowling BJ, Lau EH, Ip DK, Ho LM, Tsang T, Chuang SK, Leung PY, Lo SV, Liu SH, Riley S: School closure and mitigation of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Hong Kong. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010, 16: 538-541. 10.3201/eid1603.091216.PubMedPubMedCentral
110.
Riley S, Ferguson NM: Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2006, 103: 12637-12642. 10.1073/pnas.0510873103.PubMedPubMedCentral
111.
Egan JR, Hall IM, Leach S: Stamping out fires! Controlling smallpox with targeted mass vaccination. Med Decis Making. 2011, 31: 69-78. 10.1177/0272989X10369003.PubMed
112.
Conway JM, Tuite AR, Fisman DN, Hupert N, Meza R, Davoudi B, English K, van den Driessche P, Brauer F, Ma J, Meyers LA, Smieja M, Greer A, Skowronski DM, Buckeridge DL, Kwong JC, Wu J, Moghadas SM, Coombs D, Brunham RC, Pourbohloul B: Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything. BMC Public Health. 2011, 11: 932-10.1186/1471-2458-11-932.PubMedPubMedCentral
113.
Chowell G, Viboud C, Wang X, Bertozzi SM, Miller MA: Adaptive vaccination strategies to mitigate pandemic influenza: Mexico as a case study. PLoS One. 2009, 4: e8164-10.1371/journal.pone.0008164.PubMedPubMedCentral
114.
Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani A: Optimizing allocation for a delayed influenza vaccination campaign. PLoS Curr. 2009, 1: RRN1134.PubMedPubMedCentral
115.
Increased transmission and outbreaks of measles - European region, 2011. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 60: 1605-1610.
116.
Tang S, Xiao Y, Yuan L, Cheke RA, Wu J: Campus quarantine (Fengxiao) for curbing emergent infectious diseases: lessons from mitigating A/H1N1 in Xi'an, China. J Theor Biol. 2012, 295: 47-58.PubMed
117.
Miller MA, Viboud C, Balinska M, Simonsen L: The signature features of influenza pandemics - implications for policy. N Engl J Med. 2009, 360: 2595-2598. 10.1056/NEJMp0903906.PubMed
118.
Mereckiene J, Cotter S, Weber JT, Nicoll A, D'Ancona F, Lopalco PL, Johansen K, Wasley AM, Jorgensen P, Lévy-Bruhl D, Giambi C, Stefanoff P, Dematte L, O'Flanagan D: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccination policies and coverage in Europe. Euro Surveill. 2012, 17.
119.
120.
121.
122.
Brownstein JS, Freifeld CC, Chan EH, Keller M, Sonricker AL, Mekaru SR, Buckeridge DL: Information technology and global surveillance of cases of 2009 H1N1 influenza. N Engl J Med. 2010, 362: 1731-1735. 10.1056/NEJMsr1002707.PubMedPubMedCentral
123.
Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, Longini IM, Cummings DA, Lewis B, Xu S, Fraser C, Vullikanti A, Germann TC, Wagener D, Beckman R, Kadau K, Barrett C, Macken CA, Burke DS, Cooley P: Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2008, 105: 4639-4644. 10.1073/pnas.0706849105.PubMedPubMedCentral
124.
Wu JT, Ho A, Ma ES, Lee CK, Chu DK, Ho PL, Hung IF, Ho LM, Lin CK, Tsang T, Lo SV, Lau YL, Leung GM, Cowling BJ, Peiris JS: Estimating infection attack rates and severity in real time during an influenza pandemic: analysis of serial cross-sectional serologic surveillance data. PLoS Med. 2012, 8: e1001103.
Metadata
Title
Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings
Authors
Gerardo Chowell
Hiroshi Nishiura
Cécile Viboud
Publication date
01-12-2012
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2012
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-10-159

Other articles of this Issue 1/2012

BMC Medicine 1/2012 Go to the issue

Minireview

The role of copeptin as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for risk stratification in the emergency department

Research article

Costs of delivering human papillomavirus vaccination to schoolgirls in Mwanza Region, Tanzania

Commentary

Crosstalk between HIV and hepatitis C virus during co-infection

Research article

Autophagy in periodontitis patients and gingival fibroblasts: unraveling the link between chronic diseases and inflammation

Research article

Tamoxifen for the management of breast events induced by non-steroidal antiandrogens in patients with prostate cancer: a systematic review

Research article

Antiviral activity of Bifidobacterium adolescentisSPM1005-A on human papillomavirus type 16