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Population Health Metrics
Published in: Population Health Metrics 1/2011

Open Access 01-12-2011 | Research

Testing for fertility stalls in demographic and health surveys

Author: Michel L Garenne

Published in: Population Health Metrics | Issue 1/2011

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Abstract

This study compares two methods for testing fertility trends and fertility stalls using Demographic and Health Surveys data. The first method is based on linear regression and uses the equivalence of period and cohort estimates with the same cumulative fertility at age 40, the same number of births, and the same distribution of women by parity. The second method is based on logistic regression. It assumes that the age pattern of fertility is constant over short periods of time. Both methods were applied to fertility trends in several African countries (Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia). The two methods were found to predict similar values of cumulative fertility, to produce consistent slopes, to document fertility trends the same way, and to characterize fertility stalls with similar statistical evidence. They can also be used to refute apparent fertility stalls obtained when comparing two point estimates from two successive surveys.
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Metadata
Title
Testing for fertility stalls in demographic and health surveys
Author
Michel L Garenne
Publication date
01-12-2011
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Population Health Metrics / Issue 1/2011
Electronic ISSN: 1478-7954
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1478-7954-9-59

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