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Human Resources for Health
Published in: Human Resources for Health 1/2015

Open Access 01-12-2015 | Research

Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Authors: Francesca Senese, Paolo Tubertini, Angelina Mazzocchetti, Andrea Lodi, Corrado Ruozi, Roberto Grilli

Published in: Human Resources for Health | Issue 1/2015

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Abstract

Objectives

Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level.

Methods

We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection.

Results

To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.
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Metadata
Title
Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study
Authors
Francesca Senese
Paolo Tubertini
Angelina Mazzocchetti
Andrea Lodi
Corrado Ruozi
Roberto Grilli
Publication date
01-12-2015
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
Human Resources for Health / Issue 1/2015
Electronic ISSN: 1478-4491
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-13-7

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