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BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

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Open Access 01-12-2010 | Research article

Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts

Authors: Stefan H Steiner, Kristina Grant, Michael Coory, Heath A Kelly

Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making | Issue 1/2010

Abstract

Background

Influenza viruses cause seasonal outbreaks in temperate climates, usually during winter and early spring, and are endemic in tropical climates. The severity and length of influenza outbreaks vary from year to year. Quick and reliable detection of the start of an outbreak is needed to promote public health measures.

Methods

We propose the use of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart of laboratory confirmed influenza counts to detect the start and end of influenza outbreaks.

Results

The chart is shown to provide timely signals in an example application with seven years of data from Victoria, Australia.

Conclusions

The EWMA control chart could be applied in other applications to quickly detect influenza outbreaks.

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The pre-publication history for this paper can be accessed here:http://www.biomedcentral.com/1472-6947/10/37/prepub

Title: Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts
Authors: Stefan H Steiner
Kristina Grant
Michael Coory
Heath A Kelly
Publication date: 01-12-2010
Publisher: BioMed Central
Published in: BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making / Issue 1/2010
Electronic ISSN: 1472-6947
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-10-37

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Springer Medicine

Detecting the start of an influenza outbreak using exponentially weighted moving average charts

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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