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BMC Public Health
Published in: BMC Public Health 1/2014

Open Access 01-12-2014 | Research article

Design of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies for pandemic influenza outbreaks

Authors: Dayna L Martinez, Tapas K Das

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2014

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Abstract

Background

As seen during past pandemic influenza outbreaks, pharmaceutical interventions (PHIs) with vaccines and antivirals are the most effective methods of mitigation. However, availability of PHIs is unlikely to be adequate during the early stages of a pandemic. Hence, for early mitigation and possible containment, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) offer a viable alternative. Also, NPIs may be the only available interventions for most underdeveloped countries. In this paper we present a comprehensive methodology for design of effective NPI strategies.

Methods

We develop a statistical ANOVA-based design approach that uses a detailed agent-based simulation as an underlying model. The design approach obtains the marginal effect of the characteristic parameters of NPIs, social behavior, and their interactions on various pandemic outcome measures including total number of contacts, infections, and deaths. We use the marginal effects to establish regression equations for the outcome measures, which are optimized to obtain NPI strategies. Efficacy of the NPI strategies designed using our methodology is demonstrated using simulated pandemic influenza outbreaks with different levels of virus transmissibility.

Results

Our methodology was able to design effective NPI strategies, which were able to contain outbreaks by reducing infection attack rates (IAR) to below 10% in low and medium virus transmissibility scenarios with 33% and 50% IAR, respectively. The level of reduction in the high transmissibility scenario (with 65% IAR) was also significant. As noted in the published literature, we also found school closure to be the single most effective intervention among all NPIs.

Conclusions

If harnessed effectively, NPIs offer a significant potential for mitigation of pandemic influenza outbreaks. The methodology presented here fills a gap in the literature, which, though replete with models on NPI strategy evaluation, lacks a treatise on optimal strategy design.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
Design of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies for pandemic influenza outbreaks
Authors
Dayna L Martinez
Tapas K Das
Publication date
01-12-2014
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2014
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-14-1328

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