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BMC Public Health
Published in: BMC Public Health 1/2012

Open Access 01-12-2012 | Research article

Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006

Authors: Samer Rastam, Radwan AL Ali, Wasim Maziak, Fawaz Mzayek, Fouad M Fouad, Martin O'Flaherty, Simon Capewell

Published in: BMC Public Health | Issue 1/2012

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Abstract

Background

Despite advances made in treating coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality due to CHD in Syria has been increasing for the past two decades. This study aims to assess CHD mortality trends in Syria between 1996 and 2006 and to investigate the main factors associated with them.

Methods

The IMPACT model was used to analyze CHD mortality trends in Syria based on numbers of CHD patients, utilization of specific treatments, trends in major cardiovascular risk factors in apparently healthy persons and CHD patients. Data sources for the IMPACT model included official statistics, published and unpublished surveys, data from neighboring countries, expert opinions, and randomized trials and meta-analyses.

Results

Between 1996 and 2006, CHD mortality rate in Syria increased by 64%, which translates into 6370 excess CHD deaths in 2006 as compared to the number expected had the 1996 baseline rate held constant. Using the IMPACT model, it was estimated that increases in cardiovascular risk factors could explain approximately 5140 (81%) of the CHD deaths, while some 2145 deaths were prevented or postponed by medical and surgical treatments for CHD.

Conclusion

Most of the recent increase in CHD mortality in Syria is attributable to increases in major cardiovascular risk factors. Treatments for CHD were able to prevent about a quarter of excess CHD deaths, despite suboptimal implementation. These findings stress the importance of population-based primary prevention strategies targeting major risk factors for CHD, as well as policies aimed at improving access and adherence to modern treatments of CHD.
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Metadata
Title
Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Syria between 1996 and 2006
Authors
Samer Rastam
Radwan AL Ali
Wasim Maziak
Fawaz Mzayek
Fouad M Fouad
Martin O'Flaherty
Simon Capewell
Publication date
01-12-2012
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Public Health / Issue 1/2012
Electronic ISSN: 1471-2458
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-754

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