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BMC Medicine
Published in: BMC Medicine 1/2023

Open Access 01-12-2023 | Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection | Research article

Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016–2018

Authors: Naomi R. Waterlow, Jackie Kleynhans, Nicole Wolter, Stefano Tempia, Rosalind M. Eggo, Orienka Hellferscee, Limakatso Lebina, Neil Martinson, Ryan G. Wagner, Jocelyn Moyes, Anne von Gottberg, Cheryl Cohen, Stefan Flasche

Published in: BMC Medicine | Issue 1/2023

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Abstract

Background

Large-scale prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection may have ecological consequences for co-circulating pathogens, including influenza. We assessed if and for how long RSV infection alters the risk for subsequent influenza infection.

Methods

We analysed a prospective longitudinal cohort study conducted in South Africa between 2016 and 2018. For participating households, nasopharyngeal samples were taken twice weekly, irrespective of symptoms, across three respiratory virus seasons, and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was used to identify infection with RSV and/or influenza. We fitted an individual-level hidden Markov transmission model in order to estimate RSV and influenza infection rates and their interdependence.

Results

Of a total of 122,113 samples collected, 1265 (1.0%) were positive for influenza and 1002 (0.8%) positive for RSV, with 15 (0.01%) samples from 12 individuals positive for both influenza and RSV. We observed a 2.25-fold higher incidence of co-infection than expected if assuming infections were unrelated. We estimated that infection with influenza is 2.13 (95% CI 0.97–4.69) times more likely when already infected with, and for a week following, RSV infection, adjusted for age. This equates to 1.4% of influenza infections that may be attributable to RSV in this population. Due to the local seasonality (RSV season precedes the influenza season), we were unable to estimate changes in RSV infection risk following influenza infection.

Conclusions

We find no evidence to suggest that RSV was associated with a subsequent reduced risk of influenza infection. Instead, we observed an increased risk for influenza infection for a short period after infection. However, the impact on population-level transmission dynamics of this individual-level synergistic effect was not measurable in this setting.
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Metadata
Title
Transient increased risk of influenza infection following RSV infection in South Africa: findings from the PHIRST study, South Africa, 2016–2018
Authors
Naomi R. Waterlow
Jackie Kleynhans
Nicole Wolter
Stefano Tempia
Rosalind M. Eggo
Orienka Hellferscee
Limakatso Lebina
Neil Martinson
Ryan G. Wagner
Jocelyn Moyes
Anne von Gottberg
Cheryl Cohen
Stefan Flasche
Publication date
01-12-2023
Publisher
BioMed Central
Published in
BMC Medicine / Issue 1/2023
Electronic ISSN: 1741-7015
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-03100-5

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