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Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine

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Open Access 01-12-2021 | Climate Change | Research article

Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

Authors: Lina Madaniyazi, Yeonseung Chung, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yuming Guo, Yasushi Honda, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Masahiro Hashizume

Published in: Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine | Issue 1/2021

Abstract

Background

Ambient temperature may contribute to seasonality of mortality; in particular, a warming climate is likely to influence the seasonality of mortality. However, few studies have investigated seasonality of mortality under a warming climate.

Methods

Daily mean temperature, daily counts for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality, and annual data on prefecture-specific characteristics were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan between 1972 and 2015. A quasi-Poisson regression model was used to assess the seasonal variation of mortality with a focus on its amplitude, which was quantified as the ratio of mortality estimates between the peak and trough days (peak-to-trough ratio (PTR)). We quantified the contribution of temperature to seasonality by comparing PTR before and after temperature adjustment. Associations between annual mean temperature and annual estimates of the temperature-unadjusted PTR were examined using multilevel multivariate meta-regression models controlling for prefecture-specific characteristics.

Results

The temperature-unadjusted PTRs for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality were 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27–1.30), 1.53 (95% CI: 1.50–1.55), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.44–1.48), respectively; adjusting for temperature reduced these PTRs to 1.08 (95% CI: 1.08–1.10), 1.10 (95% CI: 1.08–1.11), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32–1.39), respectively. During the period of rising temperature (1.3 °C on average), decreases in the temperature-unadjusted PTRs were observed for all mortality causes except circulatory mortality. For each 1 °C increase in annual mean temperature, the temperature-unadjusted PTR for all-cause, circulatory, and respiratory mortality decreased by 0.98% (95% CI: 0.54–1.42), 1.39% (95% CI: 0.82–1.97), and 0.13% (95% CI: − 1.24 to 1.48), respectively.

Conclusion

Seasonality of mortality is driven partly by temperature, and its amplitude may be decreasing under a warming climate.

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Title: Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015
Authors: Lina Madaniyazi
Yeonseung Chung
Yoonhee Kim
Aurelio Tobias
Chris Fook Sheng Ng
Xerxes Seposo
Yuming Guo
Yasushi Honda
Antonio Gasparrini
Ben Armstrong
Masahiro Hashizume
Publication date: 01-12-2021
Publisher: BioMed Central
Keyword: Climate Change
Published in: Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine / Issue 1/2021
Print ISSN: 1342-078X
Electronic ISSN: 1347-4715
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12199-021-00992-8

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Seasonality of mortality under a changing climate: a time-series analysis of mortality in Japan between 1972 and 2015

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Keynote webinar | Spotlight on medication adherence

Springer Medicine

Abstract

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

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