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Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery
Published in: Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery 9/2018

01-09-2018 | Original Article

A Risk-Scoring Model for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Gastric Cancer Patients: a Retrospective Study and External Validation

Authors: Lihu Gu, Manman Chen, Parikshit Asutosh Khadaroo, Xueqiang Ma, Liya Kong, Xinlong Li, Hepan Zhu, Xin Zhong, Junhai Pan, XianFa Wang

Published in: Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery | Issue 9/2018

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Abstract

Background

The possibility of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is critical to the assessment of the indication for endoscopic submucosal dissection. Thus, the aim of this study is to identify the risk factors for LNM and construct a risk-scoring model for patients with early gastric cancer to guide treatment.

Methods

A retrospective examination of reports and studies carried out January 2000 and December 2014 was conducted. A risk-scoring model for predicting LNM was developed based on the data thus collected. In addition, the model is subject to verification and validation by three institutions.

Results

Of the 1029 patients, 228 patients (22%) had LNM. Multivariate analysis showed that female, depressed type, undifferentiated type, submucosa, tumor size, and lymphovascular invasion were significantly associated with LNM. An 11-point risk-scoring model was used to predict LNM risk. An area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of the risk-scoring model was plotted using the development set and the AUROC of the model [0.76 (95% CI 0.73–0.80)] to predict LNM risk. After internal and external validation, the AUROC curve for predicting LNM was 0.77 (95% CI 0.68–0.86), 0.82 (95% CI 0.72–0.91), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.70–0.94), respectively.

Conclusions

A risk-scoring model for predicting LNM was developed and validated. It could help with personalized care for patients with EGC.
Appendix
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Metadata
Title
A Risk-Scoring Model for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Early Gastric Cancer Patients: a Retrospective Study and External Validation
Authors
Lihu Gu
Manman Chen
Parikshit Asutosh Khadaroo
Xueqiang Ma
Liya Kong
Xinlong Li
Hepan Zhu
Xin Zhong
Junhai Pan
XianFa Wang
Publication date
01-09-2018
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery / Issue 9/2018
Print ISSN: 1091-255X
Electronic ISSN: 1873-4626
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11605-018-3816-8

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