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Journal of Medical Systems
Published in: Journal of Medical Systems 1/2023

Open Access 01-12-2023 | COVID-19 | Original Paper

Automatic Forecast of Intensive Care Unit Admissions: The Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

Authors: Danila Azzolina, Corrado Lanera, Rosanna Comoretto, Andrea Francavilla, Paolo Rosi, Veronica Casotto, Paolo Navalesi, Dario Gregori

Published in: Journal of Medical Systems | Issue 1/2023

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Abstract

The experience of the COVID-19 pandemic showed the importance of timely monitoring of admissions to the ICU admissions. The ability to promptly forecast the epidemic impact on the occupancy of beds in the ICU is a key issue for adequate management of the health care system.
Despite this, most of the literature on predictive COVID-19 models in Italy has focused on predicting the number of infections, leaving trends in ordinary hospitalizations and ICU occupancies in the background.
This work aims to present an ETS approach (Exponential Smoothing Time Series) time series forecasting tool for admissions to the ICU admissions based on ETS models. The results of the forecasting model are presented for the regions most affected by the epidemic, such as Veneto, Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, and Piedmont.
The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) between observed and predicted admissions to the ICU admissions remain lower than 11% for all considered geographical areas.
In this epidemiological context, the proposed ETS forecasting model could be suitable to monitor, in a timely manner, the impact of COVID-19 disease on the health care system, not only during the early stages of the pandemic but also during the vaccination campaign, to quickly adapt possible preventive interventions.
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Metadata
Title
Automatic Forecast of Intensive Care Unit Admissions: The Experience During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy
Authors
Danila Azzolina
Corrado Lanera
Rosanna Comoretto
Andrea Francavilla
Paolo Rosi
Veronica Casotto
Paolo Navalesi
Dario Gregori
Publication date
01-12-2023
Publisher
Springer US
Keywords
COVID-19
Care
Published in
Journal of Medical Systems / Issue 1/2023
Print ISSN: 0148-5598
Electronic ISSN: 1573-689X
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10916-023-01982-9

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