Containment strategies for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus: flatten the curve or crush it?

Excerpt

Coverage in a national newspaper here in Ireland prompted me to read through the recent epidemiological modelling paper in the European Journal of Epidemiology by Dr. Chowdhury and his colleagues in the Global Dynamic Interventions Strategies for COVID-19 Collaborative Group [1]. The modelling approaches taken look solid and reasonable to me, and indeed several of the numerical predictions match our own projections [2]. Worryingly, these similarities including a mean fatality rate of about 1% of the overall population, even in high income countries, in the event of a full-blown, uncontained epidemic. In the Republic of Ireland, that would mean over 40,000 direct COVID-related deaths and obviously many more through indirect effects on health, well-being, social cohesion and economic resilience. …