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Cancer Causes & Control
Published in: Cancer Causes & Control 3/2011

Open Access 01-03-2011 | Original paper

Has the lung cancer risk from smoking increased over the last fifty years?

Authors: David M. Burns, Christy M. Anderson, Nigel Gray

Published in: Cancer Causes & Control | Issue 3/2011

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Abstract

Background

We examine whether the lung cancer risk due to smoking has increased over time.

Methods

Lung cancer risk equations based on prospective mortality data collected from 1960 to 1972 were applied to 5-year birth-cohort-specific estimates of smoking behaviors among white males to estimate lung cancer mortality rates for U.S. white males from 1960 to 2000. These estimated rates were compared to U.S. white male mortality rates for the same birth cohorts.

Results

Observed birth-cohort-specific U.S. lung cancer mortality rates are substantially higher than those expected from changes in smoking behaviors, and the proportional difference increases with advancing calendar year. This trend persisted even when the duration term was increased in the risk equation. However, adjusting for changes in cigarette design over time by adding a term for the duration of smoking after 1972 resulted in the predicted rates closely approximating the observed U.S. mortality rates.

Conclusion

Lung cancer risk estimates observed during the 1960s under predict current lung cancer mortality rates in U.S. white males. Adjustment for the duration of smoking after 1972 results in estimates that reasonably approximate the observed U.S. lung cancer mortality, suggesting that lung cancer risks from smoking are increasing in the United States coincident with changes in cigarette design.
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Metadata
Title
Has the lung cancer risk from smoking increased over the last fifty years?
Authors
David M. Burns
Christy M. Anderson
Nigel Gray
Publication date
01-03-2011
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Published in
Cancer Causes & Control / Issue 3/2011
Print ISSN: 0957-5243
Electronic ISSN: 1573-7225
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-010-9708-1

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