Skip to main content
Key Specialties
Cardiology Diabetology Endocrinology Gastroenterology Geriatrics and Gerontology Gynecology and Obstetrics Hematology Infectious Disease Internal Medicine Nephrology Neurology Oncology Pediatrics Respiratory Medicine Rheumatology Surgery
Congress Coverage
2024 ACC Congress 2023 ESMO Congress 2023 EASD Congress 2023 ERS Congress 2023 ESC Congress 2023 EHA Congress 2023 ASCO Annual Meeting
Clinical Collections
Advances in Alzheimer’s

At a glance: The ONWARDS insulin icodec trials

A round-up of the ONWARDS phase 3 clinical trials evaluating the novel weekly insulin icodec in people with diabetes.
ADVANCED SEARCH
Log in
Top
EcoHealth
Published in: EcoHealth 1/2015

01-03-2015 | Original Contribution

Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach

Authors: Kibii Komen, Jane Olwoch, Hannes Rautenbach, Joel Botai, Adetunji Adebayo

Published in: EcoHealth | Issue 1/2015

Login to get access

Abstract

Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998–2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.
Literature
Akinboade OA, Ziramba E, Kumo WL. (2008) The demand for gasoline in South Africa: An empirical analysis using co-integration techniques. Energy Economics 30: 3222–3229CrossRef
Alemu A, Abebe G, Tsegaye W, Golassa Lemu (2011) Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia. Parasites & Vectors 4:30CrossRef
Atul K, Nettleman, M (2005) Global warming and infectious disease Archives of Medical Research 36: 689-696.CrossRef
Baltas E (2007) Spatial distribution of climatic indices in northern Greece. Meteorological Applications 14: 69-78.CrossRef
Blumberg L, Frean J (2007) Malaria control in South-Africa – challenges and successes. South African Med. Journal 97:1193-1197.PubMed
Bohle HG, Downing TE, Watts MJ (1994) Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity. Global Environmental Change 4(1): 37–48.CrossRef
Bouma MJ and van der Kaay HJ (1996) The El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the historic malaria epidemics on the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka: an early warning system for future epidemics? Trop. Med. Int. Health 1: 86–96.CrossRef
Briet J, Vounatsou P, Gunawardena D, Galappaththy N, Amerasinghe P (2008) Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka. Malaria Journal 7: 77.CrossRefPubMedCentralPubMed
Connor S, Thomson M, Molyneux D (1999) Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem. Parassitologia 41: 439–448.PubMed
Craig MH, Kleinschmidt I, Nawn JB, Sueur DL, Sharp BL (2004) Exploring 30 years of malaria case data in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Part I. The impact of climatic factors; Tropical Medicine and International Health Vol 9 (12) 1247–1257CrossRefPubMed
Department of Science and Technology (DST) (2010) South African risk and vulnerability atlas. ISBN Number 978-0-620-45659-3
Dickey DA, Fuller WA (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica 49: 1057–1072.CrossRef
Duasa J (2007) Determinants of Malaysian trade balance: an ARDL Bound Testing approach. Journal of Economic cooperation, 28 (3), 21-40.
Ebi KL, Hartman J, Chan N, McConnell KJ, Schlesinger M, Weyant J (2005) Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios. Climate Change 73: 375–393.CrossRef
Epstein PR, Diaz HF, Elias SA, Grabherr G, Graham NE, Martens WJM, Mosley-Thompson E, Susskind J (1997) Biological and physical signs of climate change: focus on mosquito-borne diseases. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 409-417.
Granger, CJ (1969) Investigating Causal Relationships by Econometrics Models and Cross Spectral Methods. Econometrica. Vol. 37, pp. 425-435.
Greenidge K, Holder C, Mayers S (2009) Estimating the size of the informal economy in Barbados. Business, Finance and Emerging Economies 4(1)
Gupta R, Komen K (2009) Time aggregation and the contradictions with causal relationships: can economic theory come to the rescue? Studies in Economics and Econometrics. 33:13–24. ISSN: 03796205
Haines A, McMichael AJ, Epstein PR (2000) Environment and health: 2. Global climate change and health. Canadian Medical Association Journal 163(6):729PubMedCentralPubMed
Hanafi-Bojd AA, Vatandoost H, Oshaghi MA, Charrahy Z, Haghdoost AA, Zamani G, Abedi F, Sedaghat MM, and Soltani M, Shahi M and, Raeisi A (2012) Spatial analysis and mapping of malaria risk in an endemic area, south of Iran: A GIS based decision making for planning of control. Acta Tropical 122(1): 132-137.CrossRef
Harrus S, Baneth G (2005) Drivers for the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne protozoa land bacterial diseases. International Journal of Parasitology. 35(11–12):1309-1318.CrossRefPubMed
Hashizume M, Terao T, Minakawa N (2009) The Indian Ocean Dipole and malaria risk in the highlands of western Kenya. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 1857–1862.CrossRef
Hendry DF, Pagan A, Sargan JD (1984) Dynamic specification. In: Griliches, Z. Intrilligator, M. (Eds.), Handbook of Econometrics. vol. 2. North Holland, Amsterdam.
IOM. 2008. Vector-borne diseases: Understanding the environmental, human health and ecological connections. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
Jorgensen P, Nambanya S, Gopinath D, Hongvanthong B, Luangphengsouk K, Bell D, Phompida S and Phetsouvanh R (2010) High heterogeneity in Plasmodium falciparum risk illustrates the need for detailed mapping to guide resource allocation: a new malaria risk map of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Malaria Journal 9(1):59. DOI:10.​1186/​1475-2875-9-59.CrossRefPubMedCentralPubMed
Komen DK, Kapunda SM (2006) Macroeconomic determinants of poverty reduction in the era of globalisation in Kenya: Policy implications. African Journal of Economic Policy 13(2). ISSN 1116-4875
Kondo H, Seo N, Yasuda T, Hasizume M, Koido Y, Ninomiya N, Yamamoto Y (2002) Post-flood infectious diseases in Mozambique. Prehosp Disast Med. 17(3):126–133.PubMed
Kovats RS, Haines A (2005) Global climate change and health: recent findings and future steps. Canadian Medical Association Journal 172(4):501–502.CrossRefPubMedCentralPubMed
Kovats RS, Martens P (2000) Assessment of Potential Effects and Adaptations for Climate Change in Europe: The Europe ACACIA Project. Jackson Environment Institute, University of East Anglia, Norwich. 227-242
Kwiatkowski D, Phillips PCB, Schmidt P, Shin Y (1992) Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root. Journal of Econometrics 54: 159–178.CrossRef
Lindblade KA, Walker ED, Onapa AW, and Katungu J, Wilson ML (1999) Highland malaria in Uganda: prospective analysis of an epidemic associated with El Nino. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 93: 480–487.CrossRefPubMed
Lindsay SW, Martens WJM (1998) Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 76:33-45.PubMedCentralPubMed
Lunde TM, Bayoh MN, and Lindtjørn B (2013)How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission Parasites & Vectors 6:20
Lunde TM, Korecha D, Loha E, Sorteberg A and Lindtjørn B (2013) A dynamic model of some malaria-transmitting anopheline mosquitoes of the Afrotropical region. I. Model description and sensitivity analysis. Malaria Journal 12:28CrossRefPubMedCentralPubMed
Mardia K, Kent J, Bibby J (1979) Multivariate analysis. Academic Press, London 518.
Messina JP, Taylor SM, Meshnick SR, Linke, AM, Tshefu AK, Atua B, Mwandagalirwa K, Emch M (2011) Population, behavioural and environmental drivers of malaria prevalence in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Malaria Journal 10(161):10. DOI:10.​1186/​1475-2875-10-161
Mordecai EA, Paaijmans KP, Johnson LR, Balzer C, Ben-Horin T, Moor E, McNally Amy, Pawar S, and Ryan SJ, Smith TC. 1 and Lafferty (2013) Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecology Letters, 16:22–30. doi:10.​1111/​ele.​12015 CrossRefPubMed
Naqvi ZR (2009) Using remote sensing to assess potential impacts of hurricanes on mosquito habitat formation: Investigating the mechanisms for interrelationship between climate and the incidence of vector-borne diseases. Theses/Dissertations-Environmental Studies. Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Baylor University
Narayan PK (2004) Reformulating critical values for the bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: an application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Department of Economics 2004 Discussion Papers no. 02/04. Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
Ngomane L, de Jager C (2012) Changes in malaria morbidity and mortality in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa (2001–2009): A retrospective study. Malaria Journal 11:19CrossRefPubMedCentralPubMed
Nkomo JC, Nyong AO, Kulindwa, K (2006) The impacts of climate change on Africa. Final Draft Submitted to: The Stern review on the economics of climate change
Paaijmans KP, Blanford S, Bell AS, Blanford JI, Read AF. Thomas MB (2010) Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation. PNAS 107 (34): 15135–15139CrossRef
Panofsky HA, Brier GW (1968) Some applications of statistics to Meteorology. The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 224
Pascual M, Ahumada JA, Chaves LF, Rodo´ X, Bouma M (2006) Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 103:5829–5834CrossRef
Patz JA, Hulme M, Rosenzweig C, Mitchell TD, Goldberg RA, Githeko AK, Lele S, McMichael AJ, Le Sueur D (2002) Climate change: regional warming and malaria resurgence. Nature 420:627-628CrossRefPubMed
Patz JA, Olson SH (2006) Malaria risk and temperature: Influences from global climate change and local land use practices. Ann Trop Med Parasitol. 100(5-6):535-49.CrossRefPubMed
Pesaran MH, Shin Y (1999) An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. In: Strøm S, editor. Econometrics and economic theory in the twentieth century: the Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326CrossRef
Poveda G, Rojas W, Quinones ML, Velez ID, Mantilla RI, Ruiz D, Zuuaga JS, Rua GL (2001). Coupling between annual and ENSO timescales in the malaria-climate association in Colombia. Environ. Health Perspect. 109:489–493.PubMedCentralPubMed
Relman DA, Hamburg MA, Choffnes ER, Mack A (2008) Global climate change and extreme weather events: understanding the contributions to infectious disease emergence: workshop summary. ISBN: 0-309-12403-4, 304pp, 6 × 9
Rogers DJ, Randolph SE (2000) The global spread of malaria in a future, warmer world. Science, 289:1763–1766.CrossRefPubMed
Sharp BL, Ngxongo S, Botha MJ, Ridl FC, Le Sueur D (1998) An analysis of 10 years of retrospective malaria data from the KwaZulu areas of Natal. South African Journal of Science 84,102–106.
Shewmake S (2008) Vulnerability and the impact of climate change in South Africa’s Limpopo River Basin. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00804
Sultan R (2010) Short-run and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in Mauritius: an ARDL bounds test approach. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences 1 (2): 90-95
Thomson MC, Mason SJ, Phindela T, Connor SJ (2005) Use of Rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature Monitoring for Malaria Early Warning in Botswana: Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 73(1): 214–221PubMed
Tshiala MF, Olwoch JM, Engelbrecht FA (2011) Analysis of temperature trends over Limpopo province, South Africa. Journal of Geography and Geology. 3(1):13CrossRef
van Lieshout M, Kovats RS, Livermore MTJ, Martens P (2004) Climate change and malaria: Analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14(1): 87-99CrossRef
Wilks, DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. International Geophysics Series. 59: 469.
Williams HA, Roberts J, Kachur SP, et al. (1999) Malaria surveillance—United States, 1995. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. vol. 48, no. 1, pp. 1–23.
Zhou G, Minakawa N, Andrew K, Guiyun Y (2004) Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the east African highlands. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101: 2375–2380.CrossRef
Zucker JR (1996) Changing patterns of autochthonous malaria transmission in the United States: a review of recent outbreaks. Emerging Infectious Diseases. vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 37–43.CrossRefPubMedCentralPubMed
Metadata
Title
Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach
Authors
Kibii Komen
Jane Olwoch
Hannes Rautenbach
Joel Botai
Adetunji Adebayo
Publication date
01-03-2015
Publisher
Springer US
Published in
EcoHealth / Issue 1/2015
Print ISSN: 1612-9202
Electronic ISSN: 1612-9210
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10393-014-0992-1

Other articles of this Issue 1/2015

EcoHealth 1/2015 Go to the issue

In This Issue

In This Issue

Original Contribution

Early Detection of Emerging Zoonotic Diseases with Animal Morbidity and Mortality Monitoring

Original Contribution

Assessing the Contribution of Songbirds to the Movement of Ticks and Borrelia burgdorferi in the Midwestern United States During Fall Migration

Original Contribution

Reduced West Nile Virus Transmission Around Communal Roosts of Great-Tailed Grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus)

Original Contribution

Results of Laboratory Testing of 15 Cookstove Designs in Accordance with the ISO/IWA Tiers of Performance

Original Contribution

A 4-Year Study of a Natural Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus Focus in Hungary, 2010–2013