Hangzhou criteria are more accurate than Milan criteria in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany

Milan criteria are used for patient selection in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hangzhou criteria have been shown in China to enable access to liver transplantation for more patients when compared to Milan criteria without negative effects on long-term survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Hangzhou criteria in a German cohort.

One hundred fifty-nine patients transplanted for HCC between 1975 and 2010 were investigated. Patients were categorized into four groups depending on the fulfillment of Milan and Hangzhou criteria. General and tumor baseline characteristics were compared. Overall and tumor-free survival rates were investigated with the Kaplan-Meier analysis.

One-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates for patients fulfilling Milan criteria (n = 68) were 89.7, 83.7, 75.8, and 62.1%, respectively, versus 89.8, 82.2, 75.2, and 62.6% for patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (n = 109) (p = 0.833). When comparing patients exceeding Milan or Hangzhou criteria, survival rates were 75.3, 53.2, 48.1, and 41.1% versus 63.3, 31.4, 26.9, and 22.1%, respectively (p = 0.019). The comparison of tumor-free survival rates in patients fulfilling Milan or Hangzhou criteria was statistically not significant (p = 0.785), whereas the comparison of the groups exceeding the criteria showed significantly worse survival for patients outside Hangzhou criteria (p = 0.007). The proportion of patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (68.6%) was significantly larger as compared to the proportion fulfilling Milan criteria (42.8%) (p < 0.001).

Hangzhou criteria are more accurate in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany. Deployment of the Hangzhou criteria for patient selection could enlarge the pool of transplantable patients.