Life course body mass index and risk and prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: results from the ALS registry Swabia

Weight loss appears as a strong predictor of survival of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, yet no data are currently available to describe the life course history of pre-diagnostic body mass index (BMI) in these patients. 393 ALS cases (mean age: 65.8 years, 57.3% men) and 791 controls matched by age and sex from a population-based case–control study of the ALS Registry Swabia were analyzed. Differences of BMI change in cases and controls over time were modeled using a multilevel additive model. In addition, survival in ALS cases by BMI change was modeled using an accelerated failure time model adjusted for prognostic factors. In ALS cases, BMI was consistently higher than in controls in the 20–70 years before the interview. Conditional logistic regression revealed an odds ratio of 1.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00–1.11, p = 0.041) per 1 kg/m² higher BMI 35–45 years before interview. However, a sharp decrease was evident in the BMI of ALS cases about 10 years before disease onset. Moreover, weight loss was strongly associated with shorter survival in ALS patients. Illustrating this, patients with stable weight showed a median survival time of 22.1 (95%-CI 19.2–25.0) months, as compared to 13.4 (95%-CI 10.5–16.3) months for patients with weight loss of 2.5 kg/m² over the last 3 months before the interview. Thus, alterations in body weight are present in ALS patients already decades before clinical manifestation of ALS, while weight loss precedes motor symptoms of several years and is associated with poor prognosis.