Predictors of outcome in Henoch–Schönlein nephritis

Factors predictive of renal outcome were studied in 78 children with Henoch–Schönlein nephritis followed up for as long as 17 (mean 5.2) years. Patients with a good outcome (74%) were healthy or had microalbuminuria or mild proteinuria at the final follow-up (FU), and those with poor outcome (26%) had active renal disease or chronic kidney disease at stages IV–V. Patients with mild symptoms at onset (hematuria ± mild proteinuria) had a poor outcome in 15% of cases versus 41% of those with severe symptoms (nephritic or nephrotic syndrome or nephritic-nephrotic picture) (p = 0.011). However, among patients with mild proteinuria at onset, 18% showed a poor prognosis; non-nephrotic proteinuria with a urine albumin/creatinine ratio at a cut-off value of >144 mg/mmol at the 1-year FU was predictive of a poor outcome. Among 59 biopsied patients, 37% of those with advanced histological findings [International Study of Kidney Disease in Children (ISKDC) stages III–V] had a poor outcome compared to none of those with mild findings (ISKDC stages I–II) (p = 0.0015). Patients with a poor outcome were older at onset, had more proteinuria, and lower glomerular filtration rate at the 1-year FU compared with patients with a good outcome. Multivariate analysis showed that proteinuria at the 1-year FU and the ISKDC grading score of the renal biopsy were the two most discriminant factors of a poor prognosis.