Prediction of instantaneous perceived effort during outdoor running using accelerometry and machine learning

The rate of perceived effort (RPE) is a subjective scale widely used for defining training loads. However, the subjective nature of the metric might lead to an inaccurate representation of the imposed metabolic/mechanical exercise demands. Therefore, this study aimed to predict the rate of perceived exertions during running using biomechanical parameters extracted from a commercially available running smartwatch. Forty-three recreational runners performed a simulated 5-km race on a track, providing their RPE from a Borg scale (6–20) every 400 m. Running distance, heart rate, foot contact time, cadence, stride length, and vertical oscillation were extracted from a running smartwatch (Garmin 735XT). Machine learning regression models were trained to predict the RPE at every 5 s of the 5-km race using subject-independent (leave-one-out), as well as a subject-dependent regression method. The subject-dependent method was tested using 5%, 10%, or 20% of the runner’s data in the training set while using the remaining data for testing. The average root-mean-square error (RMSE) in predicting the RPE using the subject-independent method was 1.8 ± 0.8 RPE points (range 0.6–4.1; relative RMSE ~ 12 ± 6%) across the entire 5-km race. However, the error from subject-dependent models was reduced to 1.00 ± 0.31, 0.66 ± 0.20 and 0.45 ± 0.13 RPE points when using 5%, 10%, and 20% of data for training, respectively (average relative RMSE < 7%). All types of predictions underestimated the maximal RPE in ~ 1 RPE point. These results suggest that the data accessible from commercial smartwatches can be used to predict perceived exertion, opening new venues to improve training workload monitoring.